Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Whose Nature Is It Anyway? - Published in Hydrocarbons November 2018




Whose Nature Is It Anyway? 
This week we have a thoughtful (and beautifully written) reflection by Luis Pacheco on the great controversy of our industry: the struggle to find a balance between development and conservation. MinAmbiente Ricardo Lozano’s set phrase – produce while conserving and conserve while producing – sounds great but reality is far more complex as Luis shows us here.

Pacheco hopefully needs no introduction to those who have been around the Colombian oil and gas industry for any length of time. Now an independent consultant and a nonresident fellow at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies at Rice University, he is a frequent contributor to industry events. His clear, eloquent and often ironic summaries of complex and controversial topics are always a highlight.

Whose Nature Is It Anyway? 
Luis A. Pacheco

Eight o’clock in the morning. Las Mercedes, a busy neighbourhood in the capital. Coromoto, a 19-year-old Pemon1 girl, dirt in her face, barefooted, dressed in rags, and already a mother of three, begins her daily routine of begging. In her left hand, she holds a half-cut milk carton for panhandling, and on her right arm, she cradles her new born child. At the end of her shift, she will probably have to give her man, or her handler, a good portion of the coins she managed to extract from the few motorists. 

In the Amazon region of southern Venezuela, Christian missionaries carry out their lifelong battle to try to preserve the way of life of the original inhabitants, minus their gods. In this milieu, illness, heat, humidity and predators, keep the number of humans down and the environment almost intact. The jungle keeps reclaiming back what man takes in the form of conucos2; a world that is as close to untouched nature as one can imagine.

However, this is no paradise. Aboriginal tribes are vulnerable to changes in the environment and are particularly exposed to illnesses brought by non-indians and to which they have no immune system defence. Because many of these tribes do not have proper medical care, the life span of the Amazonian tribe people is considerably shorter 
than those living in the countries surrounding them. Many die of malaria, malnutrition and parasites.

The “garimpeiros” - illegal miners - prospect for gold, bringing not only environmental destruction but also diseases lethal to the ancient dwellers of the rainforest. The army, deployed to help guard against the illegal mining and protect the border, has become the indians worse predator and the smugglers best protector.

At the Orinoco Delta, where this majestic river merges with the Atlantic Ocean, the sun is beginning to break the monotonous darkness of the early dawn. In the distance, you can hear the loud noise made by the helicopter of the national oil company, its gleaming fuselage hovering along the surf, carrying the sleepy workers towards the oil-drilling rig that floats 50 miles offshore. The modern explorers for hydrocarbons seek new fortunes in the waters that once were sailed by Columbus.

Back in capital, the head of the oil company, riding in the back seat of her armoured company car, reads the briefing that her aid has prepared for her. The news of another dry well in the Delta project, in particular during financial results season, has spoilt her day. To make things more complicated, she will have to deal today with the head of an environmental ONG that head office asked her to meet and placate. 

Orlando, Florida, at the Disney’s Animal Kingdom theme park, a group of school kids from Minneapolis gather around the Gigantic Tree of Life. The guide explains: “At an impressive 145 feet tall and 50 feet wide at its base, the Tree of Life is home to over 300 meticulously detailed animal carvings throughout its massive trunk, gnarling roots and outstretched branches—invoking the diversity, beauty and interconnected nature of earth’s many creatures.”4 The trip to Disney will be as close to nature as these kids will ever get, no mosquitoes, no malaria, as virtual as a computer video game; and in their minds may be as expendable. Around the corner, Florida Power and Light, puts another boiler online, as the heat of the summer gets in full swing, people turn their air conditioning to the max. Somewhere in the high seas, another giant oil tanker makes its way from the south.

In Vienna, the oil ministers are pounding at the meeting table as they try the impossible, to keep the world thirsty for oil at high prices, while back home, impoverished citizens keep adding grains to a sand pile that will eventually collapse. 

In Washington, in the congressional hearing on the White House's candidate to head the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), the well-worn arguments are replayed: the environmentalists charge the government of the largest enforcement rollback in agency history, while the business community's lobbyists argue that the agency's meddling and enforcement tactics smack of Big Brother. 
On any given day, scenes much like the ones above, happen all over the world. Earth is a rotating paradox. On the one hand, full of the success of the best of human endeavour, and on the other, suffering from the consequences of the inability of the human species to care for an important portion of its members. And even though we have come a long way in terms of progress, large portion of society tend to believe that we are worse off.

As time goes by, and the argument about man’s relation with nature becomes a central one to the type of development society aspires, the discussions become more passionate and the arguments ever more refined and elaborated. Intelligent people, otherwise well mannered, become enraged at the mere mention of the next person’s differing opinion, and the objectivity one tends to associate with scientific method becomes religious fanaticism. 

The conservation activists will have us believe that, if we allow the modern economy to continue exploiting the resources of the planet in what they qualify as wasteful exploitation, our world will become a gigantic landfill under an unstoppable global climate change. They argue, mustering a growing body of evidence, that spoiling the environment we are supposed to safeguard for future generations, systematically tinkering with the genetic code as we are beginning to do, and such other interference in God's original plan, is a sure path to extinction.

The other side of the argument, as most libertarian economists, captains of industry and idealistic scientists will tell you, is that there is no incontrovertible scientific evidence to support such assertions. That, one way or other, the human species has always been modifying the environment, for the better, they will add. Furthermore, they claim that even if we accept that to protect nature in the broader context is a good idea, we do not know enough about the cost-benefits involved to make educated choices, let alone the right decisions. They argue that in the end, technology, given the right incentives, will always come up with solutions to the problems, or at least good compromises. 

When one enters into this fray, it will appear that the Manichean nature of the arguments forces one into one of two possible roles. On the one side, that of a short-sighted capitalist scoundrel, or on the other, that of a sandal-wearing idealist; stereotypes that, although a useful shorthand, are but a barrier to meaningful dialogue. The mixture of politics, economics and plain prejudice involved in the discussion of the significant issues, makes it an ideal breeding ground for blind fanaticism, and we already know where that has led the human species in the past. 

It is easy to be controversial when referring to our relationship with the world in which we live, but is it the best way to finding the synthesis necessary to go to the next stage? Will the future generations look upon us as the founding fathers of their present or will they 
look at our current debate the way we look at theologians from the Middle Age discussing the sex of angels? 
To begin to prepare the ground for the harvesting of the necessary answers to these complex issues, one needs to start challenging some or all of the prejudices – call it knowledge if you will - that we have about the subject.

Throughout the centuries, western society has developed an anthropocentric view of the universe. We believe that we are either the pinnacle of the evolutionary ladder or God’s final masterpiece - depending on one's religious persuasion. Because of this, we think that either we are entitled to use and abuse the resources of planet Earth, or that we have the divine task of preserving God’s paradise as it was bequeathed to us. Those positions have no way to meet, no way to establish a dialogue.

What if we look at the human species as just another part of nature itself and not its centre or its steward? James Lovelock, the author of the Gaia Theory, proclaims that the planet behaves as a single, self-regulating living system in such a way as to maintain the conditions that are suitable for life. In Lovelock's view, humanity is peripheral, though dangerous, to the life systems of the planet. Our anthropocentric concern is to preserve the earth as we want it. Lovelock believes that ideas of stewardship are absurd and dangerous "hubris": "We'll never know enough…The answer is hands off".


An extension of this systemic view is that since humans are part of the whole, so are our actions. Those who would go forward and cut down the rainforest to manufacture furniture are part of the system. Those who dedicate their lives to defending the forest are also a part of the same system. Who is to say which behaviour is the anomalous one? Even the act of arguing may be supposed to be part of the system. 

But, does it matter? Evolutionary biologists estimate that during life’s history some few billion different species have evolved at one time or another. Only a few tens of millions exist today. Extinction is so natural an event that as David M. Raup once wrote, “to a first approximation, everything is extinct”7. This fatalistic view of the world contends that “great earthquakes, forest fires and mass extinctions are all merely the expected large fluctuations that arise universally in nonequilibrium systems. To avoid them, one would have to alter the laws of nature”. 

By some evolutionary quirk or divine intervention, we became sentient beings. Even if we are just cogs in some celestial machine, we cannot avoid thinking that we have the means to choose our present and by implication our species’ future. We have come to this point in our history by a random, or inevitable, combination of blunders and successes. We 
aspire to continue moving forward; to do that, we count on the fact that our ideas, our one definitive competitive advantage and our worse enemy, will take us through.

Our capacity to build upon, modify and transform ideas, have taken us out of the caverns and into space. The force of those ideas has made the human species grow and thrive, though with worrying inequalities. The ideas that give us hope of curing cancer also scare us to death because of the likelihood of creating a genetic elite. The possibility of giving everybody on the planet access to electricity creates the potential of modifying the climate. Each idea poses a reward and a cost, and it is our fate to keep on choosing. 
But to survive and to thrive should not be a privilege of the privileged. The human species, it is believed, originated in Africa and spread to all corners of the world. We are, regardless of the economic development, part of the same gene pool, and we all have the same drive, and some will argue the same right to transcend. 

Hence, we reach a crucial question: are the environmentalists morally right in arguing that the rest of the world has to put on hold its long-delayed development because what is left untouched of nature would otherwise be lost to humanity or because we need to be conscious of the rights of the future generations? 

If the answer to the question is yes and we all have a God-given right to a better life, while preserving a semblance of paradise, who can then rise to the task of apportioning the world, without resorting to brute force? What are we to say to the millions of people for whom Nature is the squalor in which they live and die? Do we shrug at them, while we argue on the effect caused by modern society on the environment in the suburbs of our biggest cities? 

More than one billion people have not reached the bottom rung of the energy ladder yet, while more than three billion people are just meeting minimum energy requirements8. This energy gap is an irresistible force for change. Like in Nature, this sort of inequality will find a way of sorting itself out. It is up to society to choose whether the result is a useful and constructive equilibrium or a destructive chaos. 

As the head of the oil company rides back to her offices, after a meeting where the head of the NGO complained that not enough was being done to protect the environment around her company´s exploration project, she feels uneasy. She is annoyed at the thought that the well-heeled environmentalist does not seem to know or understand that it is oil that pays for his budget and the projects he is promoting for the protection of the rainforest and the Delta.

She shrugs away these thoughts from her mind and asks her driver to hurry as they speed by the corner where a young Pemon girl, with a new-born in her arms, is begging for money. 

Coromoto will spend the night under a bridge somewhere, together with others from her tribe who have made the long trip northwards in search of a better life or tricked by a human trafficker. Does she dream of being back in the jungle where she was born? Does she miss the loud silence of the green monster at night? Has she traded the heritage of her race for a life she is not equipped to face? Will she even go back if she could? 



The Pemon or Pemón (Pemong) are indigenous people living in areas of Venezuela, Brazil, and Guyana Small plots of land usually created by burning the forest for survival agriculture https://tropical-rainforest-facts.com/Amazon-Rainforest-Facts/Amazon-Rainforest-Facts.shtml https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/attractions/animal-kingdom/tree-of-life/ Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think. Hans Rosling and Ola Rosling. ceptre (April 3, 2018)Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth. James Lovelock. Oxford University Press; Reprint edition (July 1, 2016) The Nemesis Affair: A Story of the Death of Dinosaurs and the Ways of Science. W. W. Norton & Company; Revised, Enlarged edition (November 17, 1999)https://www.iea.org/energyaccess/   

Un día en la vida de Coromoto - Publicado en Prodavinci Noviembre 27, 2018




Un día en la vida de Coromoto
Por Luis A. Pacheco

Ocho en punto de la mañana. Las Mercedes, un barrio concurrido en la capital. Coromoto, una joven Pemona de 16 años, con la cara sucia, calzada con unas viejas chanclas plásticas, vestida con harapos, y ya madre de tres hijos, comienza su rutina diaria de mendigar bajo el viaducto. En su mano izquierda sostiene un cartón de leche cortado por la mitad para recoger dinero y en su brazo derecho acuna a su hijo recién nacido. Al final de su turno probablemente tendrá que darle a su hombre, o a su manejador, una buena parte de las monedas que logre extraer de los pocos automovilistas que le presten atención. 

En la región amazónica del sur de Venezuela, los misioneros cristianos llevan a cabo su batalla permanente para tratar de preservar el modo de vida de los habitantes originales, aunque reemplazando sus dioses. En la selva, la enfermedad, el calor, la humedad y los depredadores mantienen limitados el número de humanos y el ambiente casi intacto. La jungla sigue recuperandolo que el hombre toma en forma de conucos; un mundo que está tan cerca de la naturaleza invulnerable como se puede uno imaginar.

Sin embargo, está lejos de ser un paraíso. Las tribus aborígenes son vulnerables a los cambios en el medio ambiente y están particularmente expuestas a enfermedades portadas por los no indígenas y ante las cuales su sistema inmunológico no tiene defensas. Debido a que muchas de estas tribus no cuentan con la atención médica adecuada, la vida de las tribus amazónicas es considerablemente más corta que la de los países que las rodean. Muchos mueren de malaria, malnutrición y parásitos[1]

Los "garimpeiros" - mineros ilegales - buscan oro, trayendo no solo destrucción ambiental sino también enfermedades letales para los antiguos habitantes de la selva. El ejército, desplegado para ayudar a proteger contra la minería ilegal y defender la frontera, se ha convertido en el peor depredador de los indios y en el mejor protector de los contrabandistas.

En el Delta del Orinoco, donde este majestuoso río se fusiona con el Océano Atlántico, el sol comienza a romper la monótona oscuridad de la madrugada. En la distancia, se puede escuchar el fuerte ruido del helicóptero de la compañía petrolera, sufuselaje relucientevolando sobre el oleaje, transportando a los somnolientos trabajadores hacia la plataforma de perforación que se encuentra a 50 millas de la costa. Los modernos exploradores de hidrocarburos buscan nuevas fortunas en las aguas que una vez navegara Colón. 

De vuelta en la capital, la jefe de la compañía petrolera, apoltronada en el asiento trasero de su automóvil blindado, lee la información que su asistente le ha preparado. La noticia de otro pozo seco en elproyectoDelta, especialmente durante la temporada de resultados financieros,ha arruinado su día. Para hacer las cosas más complicadas, hoy tendrá que lidiar con eljefe de una ONG ambiental con quién la oficina central le pidió reunirse para apaciguar.

Orlando, Florida, en Animal Kingdom el parque temático de Disney, un grupo de niños de Minneapolis se reúne alrededor del gigantesco Árbol de la Vida. La guía explica: "Con sus impresionantes 145 pies de altura y 50 pies de ancho en su base, el Árbol de la Vida alberga más de 300 tallas de animales meticulosamente detallados a lo largo de su enorme tronco, nudosas raíces y ramas extendidas, invocando la diversidad, la belleza y la naturaleza interconectarla de las muchas criaturas de la tierra "[2]  El viaje a Disney será lo más cercano a la naturaleza que esos niños jamás estarán; sin mosquitos, ni malaria, tanvirtual como un videojuego en su IPhone  y en sus mentes tan prescindible. A la vuelta de la esquina, Florida Power and Light pone otra caldera en línea, el calor del verano se encuentra en pleno apogeo, la gente requiere tener su aire acondicionado al máximo. En algún lugar de alta mar, otro súper tanquero se abre camino desde el sur trayendo otro cargamento de combustible. 

En Viena, los ministros del petróleo están golpeando la mesa de la reunión de la OPEC mientras intentan lo imposible: mantener al mundo sediento de petróleo a precios altos, mientras que en sus países, los ciudadanos empobrecidos y descontentos siguen agregando granos a una montaña de arena que eventualmente colapsará. 

En Washington, en la audiencia del Congreso sobre el candidato de la casa Blanca para encabezar la EPA (Agencia de Protección Ambiental por sus siglas en inglés), se repiten los argumentos seculares: los ambientalistas acusan al gobierno de la mayor reducción en la historia de la agencia de las normas de protección ambiental, mientras que los grupos de presión de la comunidad empresarial argumentan que la injerencia gubernamental y las tácticas para imponer las medidas de protección de la agencia tienen el tinte de “Big Brother”. 

En un día cualquiera, escenas como las anteriores suceden en todo el mundo. La Tierra es una paradoja giratoria. Por un lado, llena del éxito del mejor esfuerzo humano, y por el otro, sufriendo las consecuencias de la incapacidad de la especie humana para cuidar deuna parte importante de sus miembros. Y aunque hemos avanzado mucho en términos de progreso, gran parte de la sociedad tiende a creer que la situación hace sino empeorar[3].

A medida que pasa el tiempo, y el argumento sobre la relación de la humanidad con la naturaleza se convierte en un tema central para el tipo de desarrollo que aspira la sociedad, las discusiones se vuelven más apasionadas y los argumentos cada vez más elaborados y divergentes unos de otros. Personas inteligentes, y de buenos modales, se enfurecen ante la mera mención de la opinión diferente de otra persona, y la objetividad que uno tiende a asociar con el método científico se convierte en fanatismo religioso.

Los activistas de la conservación nos quieren hacer creer que si permitimos que la economía moderna continúe explotando los recursos del planeta, en lo que califican como explotación derrochadora, nuestro mundo se convertirá en un gigantesco basurero que sufrirá las consecuencias de un imparable cambio climático global.  Argumentan, reuniendo un creciente cuerpo de evidencia, que afectando el medio ambiente que se supone debemos proteger para las generaciones futuras, manipulando sistemáticamente el código genético de los seres vivos como estamos empezando a hacer, y cualquier otra interferencia en el plan original de Dios, es un camino seguro para extinción. 

Del otro lado del argumento, la mayoría de los economistas del desarrollo, los capitanes de la industria y los científicos idealistas afirman que no hayevidencia científica incontrovertible que respalde tales afirmaciones. Repiten que, de una forma u otra, la especie humana siempre ha estado modificando el medio ambiente, siempre para mejor, agregarían. Además, afirman que incluso si aceptamos que proteger la naturaleza en un contexto amplio es una buena idea, no sabemos lo suficiente sobre los costos-beneficios involucrados para tomar decisiones informadas, y mucho menos las correctas. Argumentan que con los incentivos adecuados la tecnología siempre aportará soluciones a los problemas, o si no al menos buenos compromisos.

Cuando uno entra en la contienda, pareciera que la naturaleza maniquea de los argumentos obliga a tomar uno de dos posibles roles. Por un lado, el de uncanalla y miope capitalista, o por el otro, el de un idealista con sandalias y franelas color pistacho, estereotipos que, aunque útiles, no son más queuna barrera para el diálogo significativo. La mezcla de política, economía y simple prejuicio involucrado en la discusión de estos importantes temas, lo convierte en un caldo de cultivo ideal para el crecimiento del fanatismo ciego, y ya sabemos a dónde ha llevado esto a la especie humana en el pasado.

Es fácil ser controversial cuando nos referimos a nuestra relación con el mundo en el que vivimos, pero no pareciera esa la mejor manera deencontrar la síntesis necesaria para seguir avanzando en nuestra evolución como sociedad. ¿Nos verán las generaciones futuras como los padres fundadores de su presente o verán nuestrodebateactual de la misma forma en que hoy vemos a los teólogos de la Edad Media discutiendo el sexo de los ángeles?

Para comenzar a preparar el terreno para la recolección de las respuestas necesarias a estos problemas complejos, uno debe comenzar a desafiar algunos o todos los prejuicios, llamémoslo conocimiento si se desea, que tenemos sobre el tema. 

A lo largo de los siglos, la sociedad occidental ha desarrollado una visión antropocéntrica del universo. Creemos que somos el pináculo de la escalera evolutiva o la obra maestra de Dios, dependiendo de la creencia de cada uno. Esta creencia nos lleva a pensar que tenemos derecho a usar y abusar de los recursos del planeta Tierra, o que tenemos la tarea divina de preservar el paraíso tal como nos fue legado. Esas posiciones no tienen manera de encontrarse, no hay manera de establecer un diálogo.

¿Qué pasa si consideramos a la especie humana como una parte más de la naturaleza en sí misma y no como su centro o su administrador?  James Lovelock, el autor de la Teoría de Gaia, proclama que el planeta se comporta como un sistema individual de vida autorregulado de tal manera que se mantengan las condiciones adecuadas para la vida. En opinión de Lovelock, la humanidad es periférica, aunque peligrosa, para los sistemas de vida del planeta. Nuestra preocupación antropocéntrica es preservar la tierra como la queremos. Lovelock cree que las ideas de custodia que tenemos son absurdas y peligrosamente arrogantes: "Nunca sabremos lo suficiente ... La respuesta es no intervenir"[4].

Una extensión de esta visión sistémica es que, dado que los humanos son parte del todo, también lo son nuestras acciones. Aquellos que siguen adelante y talan la selva para fabricar muebles son parte del sistema. Los que dedican sus vidas a defender el bosque también forman parte del mismo sistema. ¿Quién puede decir cual comportamiento es el anómalo? Incluso se puede suponer que el mismo acto de argumentar es parte del sistema.

Pero ¿importa? Los biólogos evolutivos estiman que, durante la historia de la vida en este peñasco llamado Tierra, unos pocos miles de millones de especies diferentes han evolucionado en un momento u otro. Solo unas pocas decenas de millones existen hoy. La extinción es un evento tan natural que, comoescribió una vez David M. Raup, "en una primera aproximación, todo está extinto"[5]. Esta visión fatalista del mundo sostiene que “los grandes terremotos, los incendios forestales y las extinciones masivas son simplemente las grandes fluctuaciones esperadas que surgen universalmente en los sistemas que no están en equilibrio. Para evitarlos, habría que alterar las leyes de la naturaleza”. 

Por alguna peculiaridad evolutiva o intervención divina nos convertimos en seres conscientes. Incluso si solo somos engranajes en alguna máquina celestial, no podemos evitar pensar que tenemos los medios para elegir nuestro presente y, por consiguiente, el futuro de nuestra especie. Hemos llegado a este punto de nuestra historia mediante una combinación aleatoria o inevitable de errores y éxitos. Aspiramos a seguir avanzando. Para hacerlo contamos con el hecho de que nuestras ideas, nuestra única ventaja competitiva definitiva y nuestro peor enemigo, nos guiarán.

Nuestra capacidad para generar, modificar y transformar ideas nos ha llevado a salir de las cavernas y llegar al espacio exterior. La fuerza de esas ideasha hecho que la especie humana crezca y prospere, aunque con preocupantes desigualdades.Las ideas que nos dan la esperanza de curar el cáncer, también nos aterrorizan por la posibilidad de crear una élite genética de súper hombres. La posibilidad de dar a todos en el planeta acceso a la electricidad crea el potencial de modificar de manera importante el clima. Cada idea representa una recompensa y un costo, y es nuestro destino seguir eligiendo.

Pero sobrevivir y prosperar no debe serprivilegio exclusivo de los privilegiados. La especie humana, secree, se originóen África y se extendió a todos los rincones del mundo. Somos, independientemente del desarrollo económico, parte del mismo conjunto de genes, y todos tenemos el mismo impulso, y muchos argumentarán, el mismo derecho a trascender. 

Por lo tanto, llegamos a una pregunta crucial: ¿están los ecologistas moralmente en lo cierto al argumentar que el resto del mundo tiene que poner en el congelador su largamente retrasado desarrollo porque lo que queda intacto de la naturaleza se perdería de manera sustantiva para la humanidad?

Si la respuesta a la pregunta es Sí, y todos tenemos el derecho a una vida mejor, al mismo tiempo que conservamos una apariencia de paraíso ¿quién puede entonces enfrentarse a la tarea de repartir el planeta y sus recursos sin recurrir a la fuerza bruta?¿Qué le vamos a decir a loscientos demillones de personas para quienes la naturaleza es la miseria en la que viven y mueren? ¿Nos encogemos de hombros mientras discutimos sobre el efecto causado por la sociedad moderna en el medio ambiente en los suburbios de las grandes ciudades?

Cerca de mil millones de personas aún no han alcanzado el primer peldaño de la escalera energética, mientras que más de tres mil millones de personas apenas cumplen con los requisitos mínimos de energía. Esta brecha social es una fuerza irresistible para el cambio. Al igual que en la Naturaleza, este tipo de desigualdad encontrará una manera de resolverse. Depende de la sociedad elegir si el resultado esun equilibrio útil y constructivo o un caos destructivo. La resolución no es obvia

La presidenta de la compañía petrolera regresa a sus oficinas, después de una reunión en la que el jefe de la ONG se quejó de que no se estaba haciendo lo suficiente para proteger el medio ambiente en torno al proyecto de exploración de su compañía, sesiente incómoda. Lemolesta la idea de que el bien presentado ecologista no parece saber, ni entender, que es el petróleo el que paga por su presupuesto y los proyectos que promueve para la protección de la selva tropical y el Delta. Aleja estos pensamientos de su mente y le pide a su chofer que se apresure a medida que se acercan a la esquina donde una joven Pemona, con un recién nacido en sus brazos, está pidiendo dinero.

Coromoto pasará la noche debajo de algún puente, junto a sus hijos y otros miembros de su tribu que han realizado el largo viaje hacia el norte en busca de una vida mejor,o engañados por un traficante de personas. ¿Soñará con estar de vuelta en la jungla donde nació? ¿Extraña el ruidoso silencio del monstruo verde durante la noche? ¿Ha cambiado la herencia de su raza por una vida que no está preparada para enfrentar?¿Volvería a ella si pudiera?




[3]Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think.   Hans Rosling and Ola Rosling. ceptre (April 3, 2018)

[4]Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth. James Lovelock. Oxford University Press; Reprint edition (July 1, 2016)

[5]The Nemesis Affair: A Story of the Death of Dinosaurs and the Ways of Science. David Raup. W. W. Norton & Company; Revised, Enlarged edition (November 17, 1999)

Saturday, November 03, 2018

Before the Storm -This article was published in the November 2018 issue of the EXPLORER, the magazine of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists https://www.aapg.org

Before the Storm

Venezuela’s PDVSA 1998


Looking at the ruins of the Parthenon today, perched high on the Acropolis of Athens, it is difficult to imagine that those pollution-tainted marbles were once the pinnacle of a civilization that gave us the principles of philosophy, mathematics, logic and democracy. On any given day, the multitudes of tourists that visit the site each year need to close their eyes and mute the city noises of today’s Athens and imagine the Parthenon as it was to be able to picture Pericles addressing the Athenians.



Looking at the ruins of what is left today of Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., it is difficult to imagine that, like the Parthenon, it once stood proudly as Venezuela’s beacon of modernity. PDVSA was the rarest of specimens: a successful state-owned corporation and one of the most widely praised integrated oil and gas companies.


In this essay, I will go back in time and, with the benefit of hindsight, try not only to describe what PDVSA was like in its heyday but also to identify virtues and flaws. Since I spent 16 years of my professional life in PDVSA, my views are not entirely devoid of bias and opinions, but I have done my best to err on the side of truth as I see it rather than try to be neutral.

I have chosen PDVSA in the year 1998 as the “family portrait” from which to derive the analysis. This is the year in which Hugo Chavez, then a retired army officer and a failed putschist, was elected as president of Venezuela in a runaway election. One might argue that 1998 was the last year in which PDVSA enjoyed relative independence from political interference, and the beginning of the downward slope that has taken the company to the dire straits in which it finds itself today.

The Nationalization


Before we look at 1998, let us briefly jump back to 1975, the year in which the then president of Venezuela, Carlos Andrés Pérez, in an environment of high oil prices, pushed legislation through Congress to nationalize the oil industry and expropriate the private companies that had operated the industry since its inception at the beginning of the 20th century. At the time, the little-known truth to Venezuelans was that the country’s oil production was in decline and significant new investment was needed to recover the dynamics of the industry. As a result of the nationalization process, PDVSA was created as a holding company to manage all oil-related operations in Venezuela. 

Ramon Espinasa, PDVSA’s former chief economist and now an industry analyst, argues that the reasons behind the successful transition and the consolidation and growth of the national oil industry are many, but the most important are as follow: 
  • PDVSA, although a state-owned company, was subject to private law – a corporation whose shares were the property of the nation. Being under private law, PDVSA and its subsidiaries were subject to the Commercial Code, with the transparency and accountability safeguards that this entails. The distant relationship ensured that the government had no direct interference in the operation of the company.
  • At the time of nationalization, it was decided to keep the structures of the transnational companies that operated in the country, which became PDVSA’s affiliates. In the same way, the systems of checks and balances were maintained to ensure the transparency of the national corporations. These structures were gradually merged until, in late 1997, there was only one operating company. 
  • By 1975, almost all the personnel, at different levels, were Venezuelan. The nature of a private law company allowed PDVSA and its affiliates to ensure competitive salaries with the international oil industry and thus preserve the most qualified personnel, at least in the initial stages.
  • PDVSA was allowed to retain the net after-tax earnings to finance its investments. Also, a legal reserve of 10 percent of annual gross income was established to fund PDVSA’s expenditures. The company was able then to grow steadily, financing its investments and paying taxes similar to those paid in other oil countries.
In 1975, the Venezuelan oil industry produced 2,346 thousand barrels per day, down from a production peak of 3,708 in 1970, and crude oil reserves were of the order of 18,390 million barrels. It had four large refineries built by the foreign oil companies during the 1940s and ‘50s to process light and medium oils that would satisfy the residual fuel oil market of the Eastern Atlantic Coast of the United States but were not adequate for the changing transportation market.

Fast Forward


PDVSA circa 1998 is a proxy for the evolution of the Venezuelan oil industry since its nationalization. This is a loose analogy, as numbers are a poor representation of an organization’s people, its strategy and its execution, but it gives at least a fair sense of the company and its dynamic at that juncture in time.

In 1998, Venezuela’s production was 3,279 thousand barrels per day of crude oil, 170 thousand barrels per day of liquefied petroleum gas and 3,965 million cubic feet per day of natural gas, which amounts to a total output of 4,133 thousand barrels per day of oil equivalent, out of reserves of 76,108 million barrels of crude oil and 146,573 billion cubic feet of natural gas – a significant increase compared to 1975.

Equally, in 1998 PDVSA had a net crude oil refining capacity of 3,096 thousand barrels per day, of which 1, 620 thousand barrels per day were in Venezuela (including Isla Refinery in Curaçao), 1,222 thousand barrels per day in the United States and 252 thousand barrels per day in Europe; this was the result of PDVSA successfully pursuing, during the ‘80s and ‘90s, the so-called “Internationalization Strategy.” The strategy called for the acquisition of refining capacity in principal markets to ensure collocation of its increasing volumes of medium and heavy oil, while in parallel investing heavily in Venezuela to transform its refineries to eliminate residual fuel oil and increase production of high-quality white products, as the world’s market demanded.

The CITGO group of refineries in the United States (nine refineries), Nynas Petroleum in Swede, Belgium and the UK and Ruhr Oel in Germany, formed a valuable set of assets: 45 percent of crude oil exports and 85 percent of the Venezuelan heavy oil was processed in these refineries.

By 1998, PDVSA was on the road to becoming an energy company, long before such denominations were in vogue: first, the government had assigned to PDVSA the management of the troubled national petrochemical industry and later the control of the coal mines on the western side of Venezuela. Also, PDVSA had finally created an affiliate exclusively dedicated to the development of the natural gas industry, and through the use of proprietary technology, Orimulsion, had developed a niche market of under-boiler fuel based on a portion of its vast heavy hydrocarbons resources in the Orinoco Belt.

All of this evolution required technology and well trained personnel. The technology was the responsibility of the Venezuelan Institute of Petroleum Technology, or INTEVEP, the research laboratory that registered more than 300 patents between 1976 and 1999, and employed around 160 researchers with doctorates and more than 200 with master’s degrees by 1998. The training and education were carried out mainly by the International Center for Education and Development, or CIED, an educational institution that evolved to become a corporate university, and had the capacity to cater to 2,000 people per day, providing a wide range of courses through all of its sites across the nation, from basic technical training to advanced executive education.

In the ‘90s, with the blessing of the government, PDVSA designed and executed the “Apertura Strategy,” namely, devising business models that would allow for the participation of private capital in the development of upstream projects as well as involvement in the internal market distribution chain. The business models took many forms: operational contracts for marginal fields, profit sharing contracts for risk exploration and joint ventures for the development of integrated projects for the Orinoco Belt.

By 1998, this strategy had attracted 55 companies from 18 different countries, including 12 Venezuelan companies, collecting U.S. $2 billion ($3 billion in today’s money) in signing bonuses and commitments to invest up to $20 billion until 2001 ($30 billion today). As a result, PDVSA awarded or created 33 operating contracts, four joint ventures in the Orinoco Belt, eight profit sharing risk exploration contracts, as well as multiple foreign and Venezuelan companies participating in the lubricants and gasoline retailing business. The strategy encompassed a veritable cornucopia of actors and investments that permitted the nation to envision a bright future in synchrony with its abundant hydrocarbons resource base.

An Illusion Shattered



By the end of 1997, PDVSA had become a very complex corporation, and under pressure from rising costs, low prices and the growing role of foreign companies in the industry, it embarked on a major reorganization of its oil and gas business. PDVSA decided to merge its three integrated oil and gas operating affiliates (Corpoven, Lagoven and Maraven) into one, creating business divisions in their place, under the management of a now empowered PDVSA. The reorganization, although undoubtedly necessary from a business point of view, left in its wake a number of fault lines in the form of discontent among personnel and the forced coexistence of diverse corporate cultures – a legacy from pre-nationalization days whose importance was underestimated and did not bode well for the years to come.

By 1998, PDVSA’s long journey since its inception was, by most accounts, a success. However, its technical and commercial evolution was not entirely celebrated within a country that felt the oil industry continued to be privileged territory. The OPEC quota policy, for example, was always a contentious issue between Venezuela’s oil ministry and the company technocrats. Other, more significant sources of irritation were oil workers’ salaries and benefits; the isolation of the industry from general society – in particular, from the communities in operational areas; the discussion around the investments overseas; and, importantly, the controversy surrounding the growing role of foreign capital in the upstream side of the business. To be sure, this irritation was not limited to politicians – it extended to academics, business people and the general public.

PDVSA managers were raised in a culture that strove first and foremost for technical prowess and, in hindsight, were ill-equipped to be sensitive to the possible political nuances of their activities and decisions. In modern management speak: PDVSA was not very adept at managing its stakeholders. In turn, paradoxically, society at large cared very little about understanding the business of the oil industry, so long as it was generating enough revenue for the country to share.

When Hugo Chávez came into office in 1999, in an environment of low oil prices, he did not arrive alone. He brought with him a prejudiced opinion of the oil industry and its workers, borne of years of tension and misunderstanding, as well as a cadre of advisers made of PDVSA’s historical adversaries. Not surprisingly, the PDVSA establishment was apprehensive about its new political masters. The two forces were bound to clash sooner or later, and after some skirmishes, the tensions exploded destructively in the widely reported but little understood PDVSA crisis that boiled up in the spring and winter of 2002.

After 20 years, little remains of the PDVSA described here. As a Venezuelan, I still struggle between the sadness of paradise lost and the realization that the utopia was flawed and that the loss was inevitable. State-owned enterprises are prone to failure, either through inefficiency or as victims of political meddling, and PDVSA turned out to be no exception.

In Athens, the ruins of the Parthenon bear witness to a bygone golden age. In Venezuela, the possibility of progress that once was its oil industry is almost impossible to identify among the rubble in a country entangled in political and economic turmoil. Venezuelans seem to have forgotten the principles that guided their aspirations and dreams for decades and are now being forced to deal with a world of shattered illusions.


A history-based series, Historical Highlights is an ongoing EXPLORER series that celebrates the "eureka" moments of petroleum geology, the rise of key concepts, the discoveries that made a difference, the perseverance and ingenuity of our colleagues – and/or their luck! – through stories that emphasize the anecdotes, the good yarns and the human interest side of our E&P profession.

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