Between One Thing and the Other - Publicado en Zignox, July 18, 2023

EL TALADRO AZUL - ZIGNOX

JUAN M. SZABO, LUIS A. PACHECO

In a world enduring long-lasting armed conflicts, as well as economic and technical barriers to deploy alternative energies, the replacement of fossil energy will not advance at the speed the IEA assumes in its most recent projection.

Several factors on the supply side have come together in recent days to give oil prices an upward push. Production interruptions in Libya, Nigeria, and Mexico, coupled with reinforced production cut commitments from Saudi Arabia and Russia, boosted prices to their highest levels in three months. In addition, the slowdown in US inflation seems to give, at least temporarily, an upper hand to the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy.

 

The oil supply has narrowed by more than 2.0 MMbpd, due to the apparent compliance with the production quota cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which combined represent 1.5 MMbpd.

 

Additionally, in Libya, some 350 Mbpd of crude from some of the most productive fields, including El-Sharara, were shut for some days down last week. The rivalry between the factions, aggravated by protests by local tribes over the kidnapping of a former minister, disrupted the production, which later on was re-established.

 

In Nigeria, an alleged leak in the pipeline that connects to the loading buoy seems to have restricted the loading of tankers from the Forcados terminal, affecting some 300 Mbpd until the problem is solved.

 

On the other side of the world, the accident at Pemex’s operation in the Campeche Bank, caused a shutdown of some 700 Mbpd (almost half of Mexico's production). Output recovered somehow, but the last 150 MBPD, directly related to the gas compression that was destroyed by the fire on the Nohoch Alfa platform, will require more time and effort to be reactivated.

 

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues without contributing significant volumes to the composition of the supply. This week, the Baker Hughes report on drilling rigs showed a reduction of 5 net rigs; in the Permian Basin, the most attractive to reverse the stagnation, showed a reduction of 8 units. On the other side of the coin, , according to data from the same report, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are incorporating drilling rigs.

 

On the demand side, mixed signals emerged, but the most relevant are the signs of economic lethargy coming from China; the main question being the government's ability to stimulate the economy. In any case, the month of July presents crude oil imports markedly lower than the high levels achieved in June. Part of the high import volumes went to swell the strategic reserves, which, unlike those of the US, are practically full.

 

Divergent views

 

Two of the most influential international organizations in the world of energy,  OPEC and the International Energy Agency, IEA, regularly publish their views on the oil industry. Their analyses rarely coincide: sometimes it seems that they are analyzing different commodities.

 

OPEC, for example, raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2023 and predicted only a slight slowdown in 2024. According to the analysis, despite economic headwinds, China and India continue to boost demand. In its monthly report, OPEC indicates that global oil demand will rise by 225 MMBPD in 2024, an increase of 2.2%, compared to a growth of 2.44 MMBPD in 2023. The analysis considers that the demographics, economic growth, and modest competition from viable energy alternatives will sustain the growing demand[1].

 

On the other hand, the IEA argues that oil demand is under pressure from the economic backdrop and its reaction to the drastic tightening of monetary policy in many advanced countries. Still, it forecasts global oil demand to increase seasonally by 1.6 MMbpd from Q2 to Q3 of this year, averaging 102.1 MMbpd for the full year, a record. Growth will slow to 1.1 MBPD in 2024, as the recovery loses momentum and increasing measures of electrification and vehicle fleet efficiency take hold.

 

These forecasts, while marginally different from OPEC's on energy and climate change, do point to declining demand, reflecting the IEA's political mandate to drive the energy transition as fast as possible.

 

A world with long-lasting armed conflicts, non-aligned interests between rich and poor countries, and economic and technical barriers in the deployment of alternative energy, among other variables, lead us to conclude that, for now, the replacement of fossil energy will not advance with the speed that the IEA assumes in its short-term analysis. OPEC's forecast, undoubtedly interesting, seems more likely for now.

 

In short, a potential economic recession, and the structural and accidental limitations in the supply of crude, position oil prices within a virtual band.

 

OPEC+ is determining a floor price, due to its ability to close and open production. The Saudis as swing producers.  On the other hand, the Chinese economy sets a price ceiling with its less-than-optimal economic performance, bolstered by its ability to use its strategic crude oil reserves to prevent prices from spiraling out of control.

 

In this range, the week showed a significant increase in prices from the previous week. Brent Crude was close to $82/bbl, but the news received from China caused massive sales of oil contracts. So, at the close of the market, prices fell back, trading at $79.87/bbl and $75.42 /bbl for Brent and WTI crudes respectively.

 

Finally, several important news is still developing, but their effect on the oil balance is unknown. Among the most relevant:

 

Russia increased the price of its Ural crude by more than $60/bbl, a move that was born out of the need for additional revenue. India, its second-best market, could veto the purchase of oil at those prices, for fear of being sanctioned. Local banks in India require proof that the price of shipping oil is below $60/bbl—please note that this is the ceiling imposed by the economic sanctions.

The heat wave in Europe is affecting the production of the Bugey and Saint Alban nuclear plants in France, due to environmental regulations on the use of river water for reactor cooling. Nuclear power generation in France constitutes about 70% of the country's electricity matrix, making France a net exporter of electricity to other European countries when its reactors are fully operational.

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) has agreed to buy Denbury Inc. (NYSE: DEN) for $4.9B in stock. This acquisition seeks to accelerate the presence of the transnational in the field of energy transition, with an already established operation of Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage (CCUS: for its acronym in English). The acquisition, gives Exxon among other advantages, access to existing CO₂ transport capacity. Denbury also has an oil and gas production business.

California, the seventh-largest producer of crude oil in the US, has almost completely suspended the issuance of permits to drill new wells this year, according to state data. The state's Division of Geologic Energy Management, known as CalGEM, approved just seven new permits for 2023, compared to the more than 200 it had issued by this time last year. More than 1,400 requests have not been answered.

Shell (NYSE: SHEL) announced its fourth ultra-deep-water hydrocarbon discovery in Namibia, one of the most interesting offshore exploration provinces. The company, associated with France's TotalEnergies (NYSE: TOT) confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons in the Lesedi-1X well in ultra-deep waters off Namibia. Indications of the reservoir types discovered by Shell and Total suggest an oil province with characteristics similar to the discoveries in Guyana on the other side of the Atlantic.

Rare Earths

 

A few days ago, China announced that it will restrict the export of gallium and germanium, two minerals considered critical in the production of semiconductors, solar cells, and other systems associated with advanced electronics; on which much of modern life and the emerging energy transition depend.

 

According to what was announced by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, these minerals and more than three dozen related metals and other materials will be subject to export controls from August 1, 2023. According to the Chinese government, the restrictions are motivated by security considerations and national interests, but it seems to be a deepening of the trade war that the eastern giant is carrying out with the US. The Americans had previously imposed restrictions on its gallium oxide exports in 2022 and other technologies associated with the manufacturing of computer chips.

 

This is not the first time that China has placed export restrictions on key materials in the electronics industry, in particular the so-called rare earth elements (REE), to secure their availability for its manufacturing and computer industries; and also, to underline its control over the global supply chain.

 

In the early 1990s, China began exporting REE after discovering large deposits in Inner Mongolia in the 1980s, and quickly became the largest global supplier. In 2005, China began to apply tariffs to the export of rare earths to conserve resources and protect the environment. Since then, the government has been implementing different measures to safeguard its dominant position in the rare earth market. According to the IEA, in 2019, China produced 87% of the rare earths and continues to be the heavyweight in the sector.

 

In February 2021, US President Joe Biden signed an executive order aimed at reviewing deficiencies in the country's supply chains for rare earths, medical devices, computer chips, and other critical resources. In March of the same year, the US Department of Energy announced an initiative to investigate and secure the national supply chains of rare earths and battery metals such as cobalt and lithium. In June 2022, Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to increase domestic production of critical minerals like rare earths, as well as fund feasibility studies and expand existing resources.

 

What are Rare Earths? [2]

 

Rare earths, also called rare earth elements or rare earth oxides, are a group of 17 metallic elements, located in the middle of the periodic table (atomic numbers 21, 39, and 57–71), in the lanthanide group . These metals have unusual fluorescent, conductive, and magnetic properties, making them very useful when alloyed or mixed in small amounts with more common metals, and are crucial materials in modern electronics.

 

Some names of these minerals are derived from the names of the scientists who discovered them or established their properties, while others were named after the place where they were discovered:

 

 

Scandium (Sc)

Yttrium (Y)

Lanthanum (La)

Cerium (Ce)

Praseodymium (Pr)

Neodymium (Nd)

Promised (Pm)

Samarium (Sm)

Europium (Eu)

Gadolinium (Gd)

Terbium (Tb)

Dysprosium (Dy)

Holmium (Ho)

Erbium (Er)

Thulium (Tm)

Ytterbium (Yb)

Lutetium (Lu)

 

Geologically speaking, the rare earth elements are not particularly rare. Deposits of these metals are found in many places around the world, with some of them in the same abundance in the earth's crust as copper or tin. But, contrary to the latter, rare earths are never found in very high concentrations and are generally found mixed with each other or with radioactive elements, such as uranium and thorium, which makes their handling and separation complex and expensive.

 

The global rare earth metals market generated USD7 billion in revenue in 2021, and it is expected to reach USD15 billion by 2030, progressing with a CAGR of 9.1% during 2021–2030.

 

The production of rare earths involves several complex processes:

 

They are extracted from open pit or underground mines, just like other metals. The main producing countries are China, the United States, Burma and Australia.

The ore is crushed and ground into a fine powder to release the rare earth elements it contains, facilitating their subsequent separation.

Techniques such as solvent extraction or ion exchange are used to separate the rare earths from each other. This is tricky since their chemical properties are very similar.

Once separated, they are refined by electrolysis or calcination with acids, extracting the individual elements in the form of oxides of high purity.

Rare earth oxides can be combined with other metals to produce alloys with desired properties, such as neodymium-iron-boron magnets. Alloys and compounds are manufactured into final products such as catalysts, glass, ceramics, permanent magnets, batteries, among others.

Products containing rare earths are also recycled to reuse these materials.

The unique magnetic, phosphorescent, and catalytic properties of REE make them irreplaceable for many high-tech applications. For example, neodymium is used to make strong magnets for motors and generators in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other clean energy applications. Europium is used for red phosphors in televisions and computer monitors. Cerium is used as a catalyst in oil refining.

 

Rare earths are also essential for defense technologies such as fighter jet engines, missile guidance systems, satellite and communication systems, radar and sonar systems, and more. Therefore, the US, EU, Japan and others also consider it a national security priority to ensure reliable supply chains of rare earths.

 

Rare earth elements are likely to continue to be an important part of our future, from quantum computing and materials science to medical applications and advances in green technology. The ongoing shifts from internal combustion cars to electric vehicles will also increase demand for rare earth magnets and batteries.

 

In the context of the energy transition, where the system migrates from the security of oil supply to the security of mineral supply, not only for rare earths but on a larger scale for copper and lithium, among others, the geopolitics of supply will be a significant factor when planning the deployment of new technologies.

 

To meet future demand, mining companies have proposed opening new mines and building new processing plants in many parts of the world. In countries that will have their own environmental and social challenges. Some plans sound outlandish, like deep-sea mining or extracting rare earths from acidic wastewater that drains from abandoned mines. These production techniques could become economically viable if a large increase in demand drives up prices or if governments decide to subsidize production costs.

 

Unlike oil, gold, and silver prices, rare earth element prices are hard to come by as there is no widely used public exchange for rare earths. Companies like Argus Rare Earths publish regular price assessments based on surveys of dealers, consumers, and other market participants.

 

Venezuela: Political Events and More

 

The regime, confronted with an unusually coherent behavior of the political opposition, and the growing interest around the candidacy of María Corina Machado, seems to have decided to eliminate any vestige of possible fair and verifiable elections, using the legislative power and judicial as political-partisan instruments.

 

Neither the secret meetings in Qatar between representatives of the Biden administration and representatives of the Maduro regime, nor the efforts of the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) in Washington, have succeeded in unlocking the paralyzed negotiations in Mexico. By contrast, the Biden administration is apparently tightening its treatment of sanctions as a response to the regime's non-collaboration. This ultimately will impact in the recovery capacity of the Venezuelan oil industry, which is what concerns us in these reports.

 

On the economic side, inflation continues to rise, and the exchange rate broke the ceiling of Bs 30/$.

 

According to sources close to the regime, the Ministry of Petroleum is about to increase the prices of natural gas in the domestic market, to gradually eliminate fuel subsidies. The plan is to triple the prices of this fuel to the companies and factories that use natural gas in their ovens, boilers, and heaters; they will pay $3.3/MMBTU, a significant increase from today’s price of $1.13/MMBTU.

 

Hydrocarbons Sector.

 

Production: Weekly production continues to be affected by the closure of wells as a result of the explosions at facilities in the west and east. Weekly production averaged 706 Mbpd geographically distributed as follows:

 

West:                           101 (Boscán 50)

East:                            152

Belt:                             4 53 (Chevron 73)

Total:                           706 (Chevron 123)

Production from joint ventures managed by Chevron (NYSE: CVX) averaged 123 Mbpd

 

Refining: The national system of refineries processed 225 Mbpd of crude oil and intermediate products. The Paraguaná refining complex (CRP) once again has the two catalytic cracking units (FCC) stopped, impacting gasoline production; the Cardón reformer is also undergoing maintenance. The Puerto la Cruz refinery is in limited operation due to a shortage of light crude oil, and the El Palito refinery is operating and producing about 10 MBPD of gasoline.

 

Exports and Imports: As is customary, exports at the beginning of the month start at moderate levels, and shipments are expected to increase in the last fortnight of the month. Crude exports barely exceed 300 Mbpd, including those handled by Chevron are lagging, but with tankers docked at or near the terminals. 

During the month of June, 2.1 MMbbls of Iranian condensate were received, thus maintaining diluent inventories at normal levels. At the end of the month, it is scheduled to receive 500 Mbbls of heavy naphtha imported by Chevron to dilute its crudes from the Orinoco belt to Merey and DCO segregations. By the way, US customs documents show that a shipment of Venezuelan crude exported by Chevron was sold to ExxonMobil, this being the first purchase of Venezuelan crude from that company since the impasse with the Chávez administration.

 

 

______________________________________________

 

[1] OPEC+'s political agenda is, by definition, to extend the economic life of the resources of its member countries over time, extracting the greatest possible economic value.

 

[2]This section was developed with the help of https://claude.ai/chats and checked against other sources.

Note: A version of this article was published in Spanish by La Gran Aldea on July 18, 2023.

 

A Ceiling Made of Politics

 EL TALADRO AZUL

Published in Zignox. July 11, 2023

The oil market seems to have found a reason for its optimism, but the upside potential remains evasive amid the prospect of interest rate hikes, which are still seminal to the Fed and the European Central Bank policies. A meager economic recovery in China can also curb any initial enthusiasm. 

JUAN M. SZABO, LUIS A. PACHECO

In a market as shaky as today’s oil market, the release of economic and industry-driven statistics provides information that gravitates over the expectations of those moving the barrels, both physically and on paper.

Last Friday, the US Department of Labor published its labor report offering two messages. Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6%, and the number of unemployed, at 6.0 million, were little changed in June. Important to highlight that since March 2022 the unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy has fluctuated between 3.4% and 3.7%.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 209,000, while employment in government, health care, welfare, and construction continued its upward trend. Non-farm employment has grown by an average of 278,000 per month during the first six months of the year, well below the monthly average of 399,000 in 2022.

Under ordinary conditions, the slowdown in job creation would have adversely affected oil prices, but under current conditions, the market seems to have chosen to interpret the downtrend as an element that could dissuade the Federal Reserve (Fed), albeit temporarily,  from its monetary tightening campaign.

However, in our view, this slowdown alone, as interpreted by capital markets, is not enough to prevent further Fed rate hikes. In June, median hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 0.4% to USD33.58. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4%. This increase surely causes concern among the FOMC’s members.

An element that helps prop prices up is the reduction in inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates in the US. And reports from the API (American Petroleum Institute) and the EIA (Energy Information Administration) showed a drop of about 5.0 MMbbls, despite a rebound in imports.

The decrease in inventories is directly related to the growth in demand for gasoline, typical of the summer season, and the increase in the nation’s exports. A third element is also relevant: the increase, in the US and the rest of the world, of air transportation activity, which has exceeded pre-Covid levels. In fact, the higher rate of air activity has caused a bottleneck in the air traffic controllers and pilots available to absorb the increase in flights.

OPEC+ and Geopolitics

No less important has been the verification that Saudi Arabia is honoring its commitment to cut production by 1.0 MMbpd, extending it to July and August. In the same order of ideas, Russia announced that it would reduce its oil output by 0.5 MMbpd, fulfilling its commitment to OPEC+, and contributing to putting some order in the market. The reality is that far from being a measure of collaboration or “altruism”, it is the result of having consumed its floating inventories and cornered the reduction opportunities in its domestic market, leaving its exports at the mercy of its limited crude production: from about 9.3 MMbpd.

Geopolitics also brought renewed tension to relations in the Gulf of Oman, when Iranian coast guard ships tried to capture, on separate occasions, two tankers in international waters: TRF Moss and Richmond Voyager. In the case of the Richmond Voyager, the Iranian Navy resorted to firing when it failed to heed calls to stop. In both instances, the US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul showed up to defend the tankers, and the Iranians withdrew. Chevron (NYSE: CVX), the Richmond Voyager's charterer, confirmed that although the tanker was hit by small caliber ammunition, there were no casualties, and it was continuing to sail.

Drill activity, published by Baker Hughes, shows an increase of 8 units in the US, although still 72 rigs below the figure 12 months ago.

At first glance, all of this could be interpreted as a change in the prospects for oil companies. But a more detailed analysis indicates that the reduction in drilling activity in the Shale Oil basins continues and that the growth corresponds to natural gas activities. An uptick in the swamps of southern Louisiana; Globally, activity looks healthy (+143 drills for May 2023 versus 12 months ago, but its effect on supply has not yet been detected.

In short, all voluntary or unexpected events, such as the Pemex accident described below, confirm that of contracting supply versus demand.

Thus, crude oil prices, at market close, were at their highest values in the past two months. The reference crudes Brent and WTI were trading at USD78.5/bbl and USD73.9/bbl, respectively. For the week, WTI rose 4.6%, building on the 2.1% rise from the previous week. Brent rose 4.8% on the week, following a 1.4% gain the week before.

Although the market seems to have found a foothold for its optimism, the upside potential remains limited by the prospect of interest rate hikes, which remains part of the agenda of both the Fed and the European Central Bank, ECB, and the weak recovery of the Chinese economy. These factors appear to set an imaginary ceiling that limits prices, even though strong supply and demand fundamentals support a bullish view.

A matter of investment

Recently, a discussion has arisen about the investment levels that the hydrocarbon industry must maintain to develop its productive assets. The absolute numbers show a significant decline since the post-2014 price war, a trend that was accentuated by the effects of the pandemic on the global economy.

According to Rystad Energy, the industry’s annual investments have fallen from a peak of USD900 billion, reached in 2014, to an estimated USD580 billion for this year, and the market expects this trend to continue, leading to a chronic lack of investment and a shortage of oil supply in the years to come.
But this widespread belief is contrary to the predictions modeled by Rystad. According to this consulting firm, "lower unit prices, efficiency gains, productivity gains, and evolving portfolio strategies have significantly increased the efficiency of the upstream industry, in other words, the industry can do the same," than before, but at a much lower cost.”

Although there is no doubt that the industry's operating efficiencies have improved substantially, Rystad appears to be failing to account for two factors that have the opposite effect. On the one hand, exploration and production activities are carried out in increasingly complex areas and in basins whose productivity is declining due to the weight of time. For example,  increasing depths of water; and the increasing presence of interspaced wells (“ child wells ”) in unconventional basins. The other factor that has to be considered is inflation, which currently weighs on investments and operations alike.

On this same subject, Goldman Sachs recently published an interesting report on the industry. The New York-based investment bank expects “oil and gas activity to grow +9% per year (+13 and 24% for deepwater and LNG respectively) by 2025, a 2.4x increase in investment decisions since the minimum. The industry currently has 70 giant projects in development, 25% more than in 2020, but still 35% below the 2014 level.” On the other hand, “7 years of insufficient investment has reduced the useful life of the oil reserves of the main projects, to almost half the value shown since 2014.”

Finally, several important news are in full swing, but their effect on the oil balance is still unknown:
• The leader of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar, has threatened to use force unless the country's political leaders agree on a fair way to distribute oil revenues, which must be agreed upon by August. Libya, despite the armed conflict between East and West, with hidden international intervention, has managed to increase its oil production to 1.2 MMbpd, which is now being threatened.
• Peme’x Nohoch Alfa platform, in the Gulf of Campeche, about 100 km north of Ciudad del Carmen, was severely damaged by fire. The tragic toll: 321 people have been evacuated, 2 died and 4 are missing. The platform handles gas compression for the company's most important oil complex. The magnitude of the event indicates that, despite President López Obrador's announcement, ruling out collateral effects, crude oil, and gas production will suffer a material reduction. The closure of the facility could affect more than 300 Mbpd until production begins to reopen.
• Egypt has started a USD1.8 billion investment program to drill natural gas exploration wells in the Mediterranean Sea and the Nile Delta. According to Oil Minister Tarek El Molla, the program is being carried out with ENI, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP, and consists of drilling 35 wells in two years, 21 in the current fiscal year 2023/2024 and 14 in the next year.
• OPEC has held consultations with four countries – Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Brunei, and Mexico—in a bid to expand the group's membership, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said. Difficult to understand the incentives for countries like Mexico to actually agree to join.
• The ExxonMobil-led consortium has received approval from Guyana's environmental regulator to drill, through 2028, 35 new exploration and appraisal wells on the offshore Stabroek block.

Energy transition, the sun shines for everyone

It is not possible to discuss the energy transition without including solar energy. Solar power is a form of renewable energy that uses sunlight to generate electricity or heat. Solar energy has a long history of development and innovation, dating back to ancient times.

Since the human species began to search for explanations of the world in which it lived, the sun and the moon have occupied a central place in its concerns. The veneration of the Sun throughout history is well attested, and many ancient cultures developed the solar cult; the ancient Egyptians did, as did Indo-European cultures and Mesoamerican cultures.

Understanding the comings and goings of the sun and the moon was of vital importance for agricultural societies, which developed their social structure around this knowledge: when to get up, when to lie down, when to sow, when to harvest, when to prepare for the heat, when to protect themselves from the cold.

The Babylonians and the Aztecs, just to mention two of the best-known ancient cultures, developed what we could now call scientific knowledge, to manage their society according to the signals they interpreted from the celestial bodies.

One of the fathers of modern science, the Florentine Galileo Galilei (1564 -1642), was persecuted by the Catholic Church for having defended the heliocentrism thesis of Nicolaus Copernicus. Copernicus' model postulated that the sun was the center of the universe, and the planets revolved around it. The church, based on biblical texts, held that the center of the universe was the Earth – geocentrism . The sun, no longer as a God to be adored, but as a natural phenomenon to be explained.

In 1839, the French physicist Alexandre Edmond Becquerel discovered, while conducting experiments with electrolytic cells, the “photovoltaic effect” [1], observing that certain materials produced an electric current when exposed to light. Becquerel's work provided the initial understanding of the conversion of light to electricity and marked the first recognition of the photovoltaic effect.

In 1876, William Grylls Adams and Richard Evans Day, English physicists, further explored the photovoltaic effect by studying the behavior of selenium exposed to light. They observed that selenium produced an electrical current when illuminated.

Building on that work, Charles Fritts developed the first functional solar cell in 1883. The American inventor built a device consisting of a thin layer of selenium coated with a thin layer of gold, forming a junction that produced electricity when exposed to light. Although inefficient by today's standards, Fritts ' invention laid the foundation for future advances in solar cell technology.

The Swiss-German physicist, Albert Einstein, published in 1905 an article on the photoelectric effect. The photoelectric effect describes the release of electrons by certain materials when exposed to light, which is also related to the conversion of light into electricity. Interestingly, this was the article cited when he was awarded the 1921 Nobel Prize in Physics, and not his article on his famed special theory of relativity, which he also published in 1905 – his Annus Mirabilis .

In 1954, researchers at Bell Laboratories in the US, including Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller, and Gerald Pearson, developed the first practical and efficient silicon-based solar cell. Its silicon solar cell achieved a conversion efficiency [2] of around 6%, marking a significant improvement over previous designs.

After this breakthrough, solar cell technology has advanced rapidly. The development of more efficient materials, improvements in manufacturing techniques, and increased research efforts have contributed to the continued progress of solar cell technology. Throughout the second half of the 20th century and into the 21st century, the conversion efficiency of solar cells has increased, while costs have decreased significantly.

Advantages

• The Sun is an inexhaustible source of energy, providing a virtually unlimited power supply.
• Solar power production does not emit greenhouse gases or other harmful pollutants, reducing carbon footprints and mitigating climate change.
• Once installed, solar panels require minimal maintenance and have no fuel costs, leading to significant savings in the long run.
• Solar energy can be used for a variety of purposes, including generating electricity, heating water, and powering vehicles.
• Job Creation: The solar industry has the potential to create numerous employment opportunities, fueling economic growth and supporting local communities.

Disadvantages

• The initial investment required to install solar panels can be expensive, discouraging some individuals and businesses from adopting the technology.
• Intermittent nature: Solar power production is dependent on the availability of sunlight, making it intermittent and inconsistent, requiring energy storage solutions or grid integration.
• Land and space requirements: Large-scale solar power plants require considerable areas of land, which may conflict with other land uses or face opposition from local communities.
• Manufacturing and Disposal Issues: Solar panel production involves the use of rare earth elements and potentially toxic chemicals. Appropriate recycling methods must be implemented to prevent damage to the environment.

Solar energy has experienced remarkable growth recently. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), solar generation increased by a record 179 TWh (22% more) in 2021, to exceed 1,000 TWh; It accounted for 3.6% of global electricity generation and remains the third-largest renewable electricity technology after hydropower and wind power. In the IEA forecast, cumulative solar PV capacity nearly triples for the period 2010-2027, with growth of almost 1,500 GW over the period, surpassing natural gas in 2026 and coal in 2027. [1]

In the big economies, China is the largest producer and installer of solar panels in the world, which could present geopolitical problems ahead. India has seen significant growth in solar power installations, driven by government initiatives and a focus on expanding renewable energy sources to meet growing demand for electricity.

The United States is one of the leading countries in the deployment of solar energy. Several states, such as California and Texas, have implemented policies and incentives to promote the adoption of solar energy. In Europe, Germany has been a pioneer in solar energy, with a strong commitment to renewable energy as part of its policy.

Going forward, this technology will continue to grow its penetration. However, this growth will go hand in hand with restrictions on access to land, materials and the development of effective storage and transmission options.

Venezuela, political events, and others matters

Although the contacts, between the regime and the opposition, continue informally around electoral conditions for 2024 in exchange for modification of economic sanctions, no agreement is expected to unlock the political situation.

Given the apparent advance of the opposition candidacies, in particular the advance of Mrs. María Corina Machado in the polls, the regime seems to have opted to "Orteguizar"[2] the electoral process, that is, to eliminate the participants with a chance in a contest justice using rigged judicial procedures and intimidation by the security forces.

On the other hand, inflation continues its upward course, affected by lower amounts of foreign currency processed by Chevron through the national banking system; in the parallel market, 29.6 Bolivares were traded per dollar.

Hydrocarbons Sector.

At the end of June, the PDVSA Western Production team and the oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, visited the Lama Plant, located on Lake Maracaibo, to witness the start-up of the Lama 3 Module, equipment that allows the incorporation of 5 Mbpd of incremental crude oil production.

On the afternoon of July 6, a fire broke out in the facilities of the same Lama complex (Lama Generation), specifically in the electricity generation platform, in which a turbine exploded catastrophically, with two deaths and one injury to regret. The fire was controlled, but the plant will be out of service for a long time. This incident occurred just a few days after the explosion at the Tejero Operations Center (COT), in Punta de Mata, in the eastern part of the country, both affecting the country's fragile oil production. 

Production: The weekly production of crude oil was affected by the events described above. Production averaged 689 Mbpd geographically distributed was as follows:

• West:               97 (Boscán 50)
• East:                146
• Belt:                 446 (Chevron 71)
• Total:               689 (Chevron 121)

The production of the JVs managed by Chevron averaged 121 Mbpd, the result of the incorporation of a couple of additional wells in the Boscán Field.

Refining: 220 Mbpd of crude oil and intermediate products were processed in the national refineries. The Puerto la Cruz refinery is operating at operational minimums due to the lack of light crude oil. The El Palito refinery continues with the stabilization work on its processes. Although they claim to have produced some gasoline and diesel, this has not been independently confirmed.

The Paraguaná refining complex increased its production of diesel, and maintained its levels of supply to the national market of a “gasoline” produced by mixing naphtha and reformate. By the way, PDVSA increased the price of diesel for companies to $0.32/liter, this fuel had been delivered free of charge. The change is due to an attempt to cut the fuel subsidy, although it will continue to be “donated” to health institutions and other entities benefiting from preferential treatment.

Whenever these differential treatments and subsidies are presented, the temptation of smuggling and corruption arises. It is estimated that, currently, some 20 Mbpd of fuels have this destination.

Exports: Exports for the month of June closed with a total of 540 Mbpd, and 26 Mbpd in floating inventory. On the product side, some 60 Mbpd were exported.

Crude exports were : 136 Mbpd to the US, via Chevron; 24 Mbpd to Cuba; 30 Mbpd to Spain, in the barter with ENI/Repsol; and 350 Mbpd to China (130 Mbpd through Iranian barter and 220 Mbpd via intermediaries). On the product side, Cuba and China received 30 Mbpd each.

Of the total 136 Mbpd exported by Chevron, 50 Mbpd were Boscán crude, 52 Mbpd Hamaca upgraded crude, 17 Mbpd Merey and 17 Mbpd DCO. These last two segregations, Merey and DCO, are mixed with light and diluent crude brought by Chevron from Mexico.

Of the total crude and products, 626 Mbpd, that were shipped from Venezuelan terminals, only 382 Mbpd are considered commercial sales generating foreign exchange earnings.

Using the estimated prices for the month of June, these volumes represent foreign exchange inflows of the order of $400 million. Using Gulf of Mexico prices, we estimate that PDVSA's debt with Chevron was reduced by close to $100 million during the month.
 

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[1]This summary of the history of the solar cell is based on the book: “ Numbers Don't Lie”, Vaclav Smile . 2020

[2]The conversion efficiency of a photovoltaic (PV) cell, or solar cell, is the percentage of solar energy received by a PV device that is converted into usable electricity.

[3]https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022/executive-summary

[4]In reference to the actions carried out by Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua against his political adversaries 

________________________________________

Note: A version of this article was published in Spanish by La Gran Aldea on July 11, 2023.

Un Techo Hecho de Política

EL TALADRO AZUL

 

Publicado en LA GRAN ALDEA. Julio11, 2023

M. JUAN SZABO / LUIS A. PACHECO 

En un mercado tan tembloroso como lo es el mercado petrolero de hoy día, la publicación de estadísticas económicas siempre dan información que gravitan sobre las expectativas de los que mueven los barriles, tanto físicos como de papel.

Este viernes 7 de julio, el Departamento de Trabajo de EE.UU. publicó su reporte sobre la situación del empleo de los dos últimos meses. Tanto la tasa de desempleo, en 3,6%, como el número de desempleados, de 6,0 millones, que cambiaron poco en junio. La tasa de desempleo ha oscilado entre el 3,4% y el 3,7% desde marzo de 2022.

El empleo total de la nómina no agrícola aumentó 209.000 en junio, mientras que el empleo en el Gobierno, la atención médica, la asistencia social y la construcción continuaron con una tendencia al alza. El empleo no agrícola ha crecido en un promedio de 278.000 por mes durante los primeros 6 meses de 2023, por debajo del promedio de 399.000 por mes de 2022.

En condiciones ordinarias, la ralentización en la creación de empleo hubiese afectado adversamente los precios petroleros, pero en las condiciones actuales el mercado parece haber optado por interpretar la desaceleración como un elemento que pudiera disuadir a la Reserva Federal (FED), de su política de restricción monetaria, temporalmente.

Sin embargo, en nuestra opinión, esta desaceleración por sí sola, tal como lo interpretaron los mercados de capitales, no es suficiente para evitar más aumentos de las tasas de interés de la FED. En junio, los ingresos promedio por hora de todos los empleados en las nóminas privadas no agrícolas aumentaron un 0,4%, a 33,58 dólares. Durante los últimos 12 meses, los ingresos promedio por hora han aumentado un 4,4%. Este aumento seguramente causa preocupación entre los miembros del comité de política monetaria de la FED.

Un elemento que ayuda a apuntalar los precios, lo constituye la reducción de los inventarios de crudo, gasolina y destilados en EE.UU. Los reportes de API (American Petroleum Institute) y la EIA (Energy Information Administration), anotan una caída de unos 5,0 MMbbls, a pesar de un repunte de las importaciones.

La disminución en los inventarios está directamente relacionada con el crecimiento de la demanda de gasolina, típica de estos meses de verano, un crecimiento en las exportaciones, y el crecimiento, en EE.UU. y el resto del mundo, del transporte aéreo, que ha sobrepasado los niveles de prepandemia. De hecho, se ha creado un problema con los números de controladores aéreos y pilotos disponibles para absorber el incremento de vuelos.

No menos importante ha sido la comprobación de que Arabia Saudita honra su compromiso de reducir la producción en 1,0 MMbpd, extendido a los meses de julio y agosto. En el mismo orden de ideas, Rusia anunció que reduciría su producción en 0,5 MMbpd, cumpliendo con su compromiso en la OPEP+  y contribuir a ordenar el mercado. La realidad es que, lejos de ser una medida de colaboración o “altruismo”, es el resultado de haber consumido sus inventarios flotantes y copado las oportunidades de reducción en su mercado interno, quedando sus exportaciones a merced de su limitada producción de crudo: de alrededor de 9,3 MMbpd.

La geopolítica también introdujo renovada tensión en las relaciones en el Golfo de Omán, cuando las naves guardacostas iraníes intentaron capturar, en ocasiones separadas, dos tanqueros en aguas internacionales: TRF Mossy Richmond Voyager. En el caso del Richmond Voyager, la Armada iraní recurrió a disparar cuando no prestó atención a las llamadas de detenerse. En ambos casos, el destructor de misiles guiados USS McFaul de la Marina de EE.UU. se presentó para defender los tanqueros y los iraníes se retiraron. Chevron(NYSE:CVX), fletador del Richmond Voyager, confirmó que a pesar de que el tanquero fue impactado por munición de pequeño calibre, no hubo víctimas y continuaba navegando con normalidad.

La actividad de taladros, publicada por Baker Hughes, muestra un incremento de 8 unidades en EE.UU., aunque todavía 72 equipos por debajo de la cifra de hace 12 meses.

A primera vista podría interpretarse como un cambio en las perspectivas de las petroleras, pero un análisis más detallado indica que continúa la reducción de la actividad de perforación en las cuencas de “shale oil”, y que el crecimiento corresponde a actividades de gas natural y un repunte en los pantanos del sur de Luisiana; a nivel mundial la actividad luce saludable (+143 taladros para mayo 2023 versus hace 12 meses, pero su efecto en el suministro no se detecta, aún).

En resumen, todos los eventos voluntarios o inesperados, como el accidente de Pemexdescrito más adelante, confirman la de un suministro en contracción versus la demanda. De manera que los precios del crudo, al cierre del mercado, se situaron en valores máximos de los últimos dos meses. Los crudos marcadores se tranzaban en 78,5 $/bbl y 73,9 $/bbl, para el Brent y WTI respectivamente. Para la semana, el WTI subió un 4,6%, sumándose al aumento del 2,1% de la semana anterior. El Brent se ubicó en un 4,8%, posterior al aumento del 1,4% de la semana anterior.

Aunque el mercado parece haber encontrado un asidero para su optimismo, el potencial alcista sigue limitado por la perspectiva de subidas de tasas de interés, que sigue siendo parte de la agenda tanto del FED como del Banco Central de Europa (BCE), y la débil recuperación de la economía china. Estos factores parecen establecer un techo imaginario que limita los precios, a pesar de que los sólidos fundamentos de suministro y demanda, respaldan una visión alcista.

Recientemente, se ha planteado una discusión sobre los niveles de inversión que la industria de los hidrocarburos debe mantener para desarrollar sus activos productivos. Los números absolutos muestran un importante descenso desde la guerra de precios post 2014, tendencia que se acentuó en la economía por los efectos de la pandemia.

En efecto, según Rystad Energy, las inversiones han caído desde un máximo de 900 MMM$, alcanzado en 2014, hasta un estimado de 580 MMM$ para este año, y el mercado espera que esta tendencia continúe y conduzca a una falta crónica de inversión y una escasez de suministro de petróleo en los próximos años. Pero esta creencia generalizada es contraria a las predicciones modeladas por Rystad. Según esta empresa consultora, “los precios unitarios más bajos, las ganancias en eficiencia, las ganancias de productividad y las estrategias de portafolio en evolución, han aumentado significativamente la eficiencia de la industria aguas arriba, en otras palabras, la industria puede hacer lo mismo que antes, pero a un costo mucho menor”.

A pesar de que no hay duda que las eficiencias operativas de la industria han mejorado sustancialmente, Rystad parece no tomar en cuenta dos factores que cuyo efecto es contrario. Por una parte, las actividades de exploración y producción se desarrollan en áreas cada vez más complejas y en cuencas cuya productividad está mermando por el peso de los años; por ejemplo: tirantes de agua cada vez mayores; y la presencia cada vez mayor de pozos inter-espaciados (“child wells”) en las cuencas no convencionales. El otro factor que tiene que tomarse en cuenta es la inflación, que en la actualidad pesa sobre inversiones y operaciones por igual.

Sobre este mismo tema, la banca de inversión Goldman Sachs (GS), recientemente publicó un interesante reporte sobre la industria. GS afirma que: “esperamos que la actividad de petróleo y gas tenga un crecimiento de +9% anual (+13 y 24% para aguas profundas y GNL respectivamente) para 2025, un aumento de 2,4 veces en las decisiones de inversión desde el mínimo. La industria tiene actualmente 70 proyectos gigantes en desarrollo, un 25% más que en 2020, pero todavía un 35% por debajo del nivel de 2014”. Por otro lado, “7 años de inversión insuficiente ha reducido la vida útil de las reservas petroleras de los principales proyectos, a casi la mitad del valor mostrado desde el 2014”.

Finalmente, varias noticias importantes están en pleno desarrollo, pero su efecto sobre el balance petrolero todavía se desconoce:

• • • El líder del Ejército Nacional de Libia, Khalifa Haftar, ha amenazado con usar la fuerza a menos que los líderes políticos del país acuerden una forma justa de distribuir los ingresos del petróleo, que deberá acordarse antes da agosto. Libia, a pesar del conflicto armado entre este y oeste, con intervención internacional soterrada, ha logrado aumentar su producción de petróleo a 1,2 MMbpd, que ahora están siendo amenazadas.
    • La plataforma Nohoch Alfa, de Pemex, en el Golfo de Campeche, a unos 100 km al norte de Ciudad del Carmen, fue severamente dañada por las llamas, antes de lograr su extinción: 321 personas han sido evacuadas, 2 fallecidos y 4 están desaparecidas. La plataforma maneja la compresión de gas del complejo petrolero más importante de la empresa. La magnitud del evento indica que, a pesar del anuncio del presidente López Obrador, descartando efectos colaterales, la producción de crudo y gas sufrirá una reducción material. El cierre de la instalación podría afectar más de 300 Mbpd hasta que se comience a reabrir la producción.
    • Egipto ha iniciado un programa de 1.800 millones de dólares de inversión para perforar pozos de exploración de gas natural en el mar Mediterráneo y el delta del Nilo. Según el ministro de Petróleo, Tarek El Molla, el programa se lleva a cabo con ENI, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell y BP, y consiste en perforar 35 pozos en dos años, 21 en el actual año fiscal 2023/2024 y 14 en el próximo año.
    • La OPEP ha realizado consultas con cuatro países, Azerbaiyán, Malasia, Brunéi y México, en un intento por ampliar la membresía del grupo, dijo el secretario general, Haitham al-Ghais. Difícil entender los incentivos para que países como México acepten unirse.
    • El consorcio liderado por ExxonMobil recibió la aprobación del regulador ambiental de Guyana para perforar, hasta 2028, 35 nuevos pozos de exploración y evaluación en el bloque costa afuera Stabroek.

Transición energética, el sol sale para todos

No es posible hablar de transición energética sin incluir en ella la energía solar. Esta es una forma de energía renovable que utiliza la luz solar para generar electricidad o calor. La energía solar tiene una larga historia de desarrollo e innovación, que se remonta a la antigüedad.

Desde que la especie humana empezó a buscar explicaciones del mundo en el que vivía, el Sol y la Luna han ocupado un lugar central de sus preocupaciones. La veneración del Sol a lo largo de la historia está bien atestiguada y muchas culturas antiguas desarrollaron el culto solar; los antiguos egipcios lo hicieron, al igual que las culturas indoeuropeas y las culturas mesoamericanas¹.

Entender las idas y venidas del Sol y la Luna eran de vital importancia para las sociedades agrícolas, que desarrollaron alrededor de ese conocimiento su estructura social: cuándo levantarse, cuándo acostarse, cuándo sembrar, cuándo cosechar, cuándo prepararse para el calor, cuándo protegerse del frío. Los babilonios y los aztecas, solo para mencionar dos de las culturas más conocidas, desarrollaron lo que hoy pudiéramos calificar de conocimiento científico, para gestionar su sociedad de acuerdo con las señales que interpretaban de los cuerpos celestes.

Uno de los padres de la ciencia moderna, el toscano Galileo Galilei (1564 -1642), fue perseguido por la Iglesia católica por haber defendido la tesis heliocentrista de Nicolás Copérnico. El modelo de Copérnico postulaba que el Sol era el centro del universo, y los planetas giraban alrededor de él. La Iglesia, basada en una interpretación de los textos bíblicos, sostenía que el centro del universo era la Tierra –geocentrismo-. Para Galileo, el Sol, ya no como Dios al qué adorar sino como el fenómeno natural a explicar.

En 1839, el físico francés Alexandre-Edmond Becquerel descubrió, mientras realizaba experimentos con celdas electrolíticas, el “efecto fotovoltaico”, observando que ciertos materiales producían una corriente eléctrica cuando se exponían a la luz. El trabajo de Becquerel proporcionó la comprensión inicial de la conversión de la luz en electricidad y marcó el primer reconocimiento del efecto fotovoltaico.

En 1876, William Grylls Adams y Richard Evans Day, físicos ingleses, exploraron más a fondo el efecto fotovoltaico, estudiando el comportamiento del selenio expuesto a la luz. Observaron que el selenio producía una corriente eléctrica cuando se iluminaba. Sobre la base de ese trabajo, Charles Frittsdesarrolló la primera celda solar funcional en 1883. El inventor estadounidense construyó un dispositivo que constaba de una fina capa de selenio recubierta con una fina capa de oro, formando una unión que producía electricidad cuando se exponía a la luz. Aunque ineficiente para los estándares de hoy, el invento de Fritts sentó las bases para futuros avances en la tecnología de células solares.

El físico suizo-alemán, Albert Einstein, publicó en 1905 un artículo sobre el efecto fotoeléctrico. El efecto fotoeléctrico describe la liberación de electrones por parte de ciertos materiales cuando son expuestos a la luz, lo que también está relacionado con la conversión de luz en electricidad. Curiosamente, fue este el artículo citado cuando se le otorgó el Premio Nobel de Física de 1921, y no su artículo sobre su afamada teoría especial de la relatividad, que también publicó en 1905 -su Annus Mirabilis.

En 1954, investigadores de Bell Laboratories, en los EE.UU., incluidos Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller y Gerald Pearson, desarrollaron la primera celda solar práctica y eficiente a base de silicio. Su celda solar de silicio logró una eficiencia de conversión² de alrededor del 6%, lo que marcaba una mejora significativa con respecto a los diseños anteriores. A partir de este avance, la tecnología de celdas solares ha avanzado rápidamente. El desarrollo de materiales más eficientes, las mejoras en las técnicas de fabricación y el aumento de los esfuerzos de investigación, contribuyeron al progreso continuo de la tecnología de celdas solares. A lo largo de la segunda mitad del siglo XX y en el siglo XXI, la eficiencia de conversión de las celdas solares ha aumentado, mientras que los costos han disminuido de manera significativa³:

Ventajas: 

• • • • El Sol es una fuente inagotable de energía, proporcionando un suministro de energía virtualmente ilimitado.
      • La producción de energía solar no emite gases de efecto invernadero ni otros contaminantes nocivos, lo que reduce la huella de carbono y mitiga el cambio climático.
      • Una vez instalados, los paneles solares requieren un mantenimiento mínimo y no tienen costos de combustible, lo que genera ahorros significativos a largo plazo.
      • La energía solar se puede utilizar para diversos fines, incluida la generación de electricidad, el calentamiento de agua y la alimentación de vehículos.
      • Creación de empleo: la industria solar tiene el potencial de generar numerosas oportunidades de empleo, impulsando el crecimiento económico y apoyando a las comunidades locales.

Desventajas: 

• • • • La inversión inicial requerida para instalar paneles solares puede ser costosa, lo que disuade a algunas personas y empresas de adoptar la tecnología.
      • Naturaleza intermitente: la producción de energía solar depende de la disponibilidad de la luz solar, lo que la hace intermitente e inconsistente, lo que requiere soluciones de almacenamiento de energía o integración en la red.
      • Requerimientos de tierra y espacio: las plantas de energía solar a gran escala requieren áreas de tierra considerables, que pueden entrar en conflicto con otros usos del terreno o enfrentar la oposición de las comunidades locales.
      • Problemas de fabricación y disposición: la producción de paneles solares implica la utilización de elementos de tierras raras y productos químicos potencialmente tóxicos. Se deben implementar métodos de reciclaje adecuados para evitar daños al medioambiente.

La energía solar ha experimentado un notable crecimiento en los últimos años. Según la Agencia Internacional de Energía (IEA, por sus siglas en inglés), la generación solar aumentó en un récord de 179 TWh (un 22% más) en 2021, para superar los 1000 TWh; representó el 3,6% de la generación mundial de electricidad y sigue siendo la tercera tecnología de electricidad renovable después de la energía hidroeléctrica y la eólica. En el pronóstico de la IEA la capacidad acumulada de energía solar fotovoltaica casi se triplica para el período 2010-2027, con un crecimiento de casi 1.500 GW durante el período, superando al gas natural en 2026 y al carbón en 2027⁴.

En las grandes economías, China es el mayor productor e instalador de paneles solares del mundo, lo cual pudiera presentar problemas geopolíticos hacia delante. India ha experimentado un crecimiento significativo en las instalaciones de energía solar, impulsada por iniciativas gubernamentales y un enfoque en la expansión de las fuentes de energía renovable para satisfacer la creciente demanda de electricidad.

Estados Unidos es uno de los países líderes en el despliegue de energía solar. Varios estados, como California y Texas, han implementado políticas e incentivos para promover la adopción de la energía solar. En Europa, Alemania ha sido pionera en energía solar, con una fuerte apuesta por las energías renovables dentro de su política.

Hacia el futuro, esta tecnología seguirá creciendo en su penetración. Sin embargo, ese crecimiento irá de la mano de las restricciones de acceso a terreno, materiales y el desarrollo de opciones efectivas de almacenamiento y transmisión.

Venezuela

Eventos Políticos y Otros:Aunque los contactos, entre régimen y oposición, continúan en manera oficiosa alrededor de condiciones electorales para el 2024 a cambio de modificación de sanciones económicas, no se espera ningún acuerdo que destrabe la situación política. El régimen, ante el aparente avance de las candidaturas de oposición, en particular el de María Corina Machado en las encuestas, parece haber optado por “Orteguizar”⁵ el proceso electoral, o sea, eliminar los participantes con chance en una contienda justa utilizando procedimientos judiciales amañados y amedrentamiento por parte de los cuerpos de seguridad.

Por otra parte, la inflación continúa su curso alcista, afectada por menores montos de divisas procesados por Chevron a través del sistema bancario nacional; en el mercado paralelo, al cierre de la semana, se tranzaban 29,6 bolívares por dólar. 

Sector Hidrocarburos

A finales de junio, el equipo de Producción Occidente de PDVSA, y el ministro de Petróleo, Pedro Tellechea, visitaron la Planta Lama, ubicada en el Lago de Maracaibo, para presenciar el arranque del Módulo Lama 3, equipo que permitirá la incorporación de 5 Mbpd de producción de crudo incremental.

En la tarde del 6 de julio, se presentó un incendio en las instalaciones del mismo complejo Lama (Lama Generación), específicamente en la plataforma de generación eléctrica, en la cual una turbina explotó catastróficamente, con dos fallecidos y un herido que lamentar. El fuego fue controlado, pero la planta estará fuera de servicio por un tiempo prolongado. Este incidente sucede apenas unos días después que la explosión en el Centro de Operaciones del Tejero (COT), en Punta de Mata, en el oriente del país, ambos afectando la frágil producción petrolera del país.

Producción:La producción semanal de crudo se vio afectada por los eventos antes descritos. La producción promedió 689 Mbpd distribuido geográficamente como sigue:

La producción de las empresas mixtas gestionadas por Chevron promedió 121 Mbpd, resultado de la incorporación de un par de pozos adicionales en el Campo Boscán.

Refinación:Se procesaron 220 Mbpd de crudo y productos intermedios ​​en las refinerías nacionales. La Refinería de Puerto la Cruz se encuentra a mínimos operacionales por la falta de crudo liviano. La Refinería El Palito continúa con las labores de estabilización de sus procesos. Aunque afirman haber producido algo de gasolina y diésel, no ha podido ser confirmado de manera independiente.

El Complejo Refinador Paraguaná incrementó su producción de diésel, y mantuvo sus niveles de suministro al mercado nacional de una “gasolina” producida mezclando nafta y reformado. Por cierto, PDVSA aumentó el precio del diésel para las empresas a 0,32 $/litro, este combustible se venía entregando sin costo. El cambio obedece a un intento por recortar el subsidio del combustible, aunque seguirá siendo “donado” a instituciones de salud y otros entes beneficiados con el tratamiento preferencial.

Siempre que se presentan estos tratamientos diferenciales y subsidios, surge la tentación del contrabando y la corrupción. Se estima que, en la actualidad, unos 20 Mbpd de combustibles tienen ese destino.

Exportaciones:La exportación para el mes de junio cerró con un total de 540 Mbpd, y 26 Mbpd en inventario flotante. En el lado de productos, se exportaron unos 60 Mbpd.

Las exportaciones de crudo fueron: 136 Mbpd a EE.UU., vía Chevron; 24 Mbpd a Cuba; 30 Mbpd a España, en el truque con ENI/Repsol; y 350 Mbpd a China (130 Mbpd a través del trueque iraní y 220 Mbpd vía intermediaros). En el lado de productos, Cuba y Chinarecibieron 30 Mbpd cada uno.

Del total de los 136 Mbpd exportados por Chevron, 50 Mbpd fueron de crudo Boscán, 52 Mbpd de crudo mejorado Hamaca, 17 Mbpd de Merey y 17 Mbpd de DCO. Estas dos últimas segregaciones, Merey y DCO, están mezcladas con crudo liviano y diluente traído por Chevron desde México.

Del total de crudo y productos, 626 Mbpd, que se despacharon de terminales venezolanos, solo 382 Mbpd se consideran ventas comerciales generadoras de ingresos en divisas.

Utilizando los precios estimados para el mes de junio, estos volúmenes representan ingresos de divisas del orden de 400 MM$. Utilizando los precios del Golfo de México, estimamos que la deuda de PDVSA con Chevron se redujo en cerca de 100 MM$ durante el mes.

—
(1)The Ancient Worship of the Sun; 5 Ancient Civilizations That Venerated It – Curiosmos
(2)La eficiencia de conversión de una celda fotovoltaica (PV: por sus siglas en inglés), o celda solar, es el porcentaje de la energía solar que recibe un dispositivo PV que se convierte en electricidad utilizable.
(3)Este resumen de la historia de la celda solar está basado en el libro: “Numbers Don’t Lie”, Vaclav Smil. 2020. Smil anota que en 1985 adquirió su primer calculador solar – Texas Instruments TI -35 Galaxy Solar.
(4)https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022/executive-summary
(5)En referencia a las acciones adelantadas por Daniel Ortega en Nicaragua en contra de sus adversarios políticos.
—
*La ilustración generada utilizando Midjourney, realizada por Luis A. Pacheco, es cortesía del autor al editor de La Gran Aldea.
—
*M. Juan Szabo, Analista Internacional.
*Luis A. Pacheco, non-resident fellow at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies.