Entre lo uno y lo otro - Publicado en La Gran Aldea julio 18, 2023

 EL TALADRO AZUL

M. JUAN SZABO / LUIS A. PACHECO 

Esta semana confluyeron varios factores del lado del suministro que en suma le dieron un empuje a los precios al alza. Las interrupciones de producción en Libia, Nigeria y México, aunadas a la aparente robustez de los compromisos de recorte de Arabia Saudita y Rusia, elevaron los precios del barril a sus niveles más altos de los últimos tres meses. A eso se le añadió la reducción en las cifras de inflación en EE.UU., que parece respaldar el moderado éxito de las políticas de restricción monetaria de la Reserva Federal, y presagiar que las tasas de interés estarían cerca de los niveles que se estiman eficaces.

Por otro lado, esa misma efervescencia en el mercado movió a los actores del mercado petrolero a tomar ganancias, que en conjunción con las noticias algo ambiguas provenientes de China, motivó una “venta masiva de posiciones” que moderó los precios petroleros antes que el mercado cerrara para la semana.

Aunque sea por los momentos, la oferta petrolera se ha estrechado en más de 2,0 MMbpd, en virtud del aparente cumplimiento de los cierres de producción anunciados por Arabia Saudita y Rusia, que entre los dos suman 1,5 MMbpd.

Adicionalmente, en Libia, unos 350 Mbpd de crudo proveniente de algunos de los yacimientos más prolíficos, incluyendo El-Sharara, fueron cerrados a partir de la mitad de la semana. La rivalidad entre las facciones, agravada por protestas de las tribus locales por el secuestro de un exministro, provocó la interrupción en la producción -al cierre de esta edición se anunciaba la reapertura del campo de producción.

En Nigeria, debido a una supuesta fuga en el oleoducto que conecta a la boya de carga, SPDC (Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria)parece haber restringido la carga de tanqueros desde el terminal de Forcados, localizado en la boca del río del mismo nombre, afectando unos 300 Mbpd hasta que se remedie el problema.

En el otro lado del mundo, y debido al accidente sufrido por Pemex en sus operaciones de  Sonda de Campeche, se cerró inicialmente la producción en la zona, unos 700 Mbpd (casi la mitad de la producción de México). La producción ha venido recuperándose, pero los últimos 150 Mbpd, directamente relacionados con la compresión de gas que quedó destruida por el incendio en la plataforma Nohoch Alfa, requerirá de más tiempo y esfuerzo para ser reactivado.

EE.UU. continúa sin aportar volúmenes significativos a la composición del suministro. Esta semana, el reporte de Baker Hughes de taladros de perforación de pozos mostró una reducción de 5 taladros netos; en la Cuenca del Permian, la más atractiva para revertir el estancamiento, la contracción fue de 8 unidades. Por el contrario, tanto Arabia Sauditacomo los Emiratos Árabes Unidos (EAU), están incorporando taladros de perforación, según data del mismo reporte.

Por el lado de la demanda emergen señales mixtas, pero lo más relevante son las señales de letargo económico que vienen de China, siendo la duda principal la capacidad del Gobierno de poder estimular su economía. En todo caso, el mes de julio presenta importaciones de crudo marcadamente inferiores a los altos niveles logrados en junio. Parte de los altos volúmenes de importación fueron a engrosar las reservas estratégicas, que a diferencia de las de EE.UU., están prácticamente llenas a capacidad.

Dos de las organizaciones internacionales más influyentes en el mundo de la energía, son la OPEP y la Agencia Internacional de la Energía (IEA, por sus siglas en inglés), que publican regularmente pronósticos sobre la energía y en particular sobre el petróleo. Sus análisis, como es de esperarse dada sus diferentes agendas, rara vez coinciden; a veces parece que estuvieran analizando mercados del petróleo diferentes.

La OPEP, por ejemplo, elevó su pronóstico de crecimiento de la demanda de petróleo para 2023 y pronosticó solo una leve desaceleración en 2024. Según su análisis, a pesar de los obstáculos económicos, China e India continúan impulsando la demanda. En su informe mensual, la OPEP indica que la demanda mundial de petróleo aumentará en 2,25 MMbpd en 2024, un aumento del 2,2%, en comparación con el crecimiento de 2,44 MMbpd en 2023. El análisis considera que las variables demográficas, el crecimiento económico y una modesta competencia de alternativas energéticas viables son la fundación de creciente demanda¹.

La IEA sostiene que la demanda petrolera está bajo la presión del entorno económico y su reacción al drástico endurecimiento de la política monetaria en muchos países avanzados.

Aun así, pronostica que la demanda mundial de petróleo aumentará estacionalmente en 1,6 MMbpd del segundo al tercer trimestre de este año, logrando un promedio de 102,1 MMbpd para todo el año, un nuevo récord. El crecimiento se desacelerará a 1,1 Mbpd en 2024, a medida que la recuperación pierda impulso y se afiancen medidas cada vez mayores de electrificación y eficiencia de la flota de vehículos.

Estos pronósticos, aunque marginalmente diferentes a los de la OPEP la energía y el cambio climático, sí apuntan hacia una demanda en descenso, reflejando el mandato político de la IEA, de impulsar la transición energética a la mayor velocidad posible.

Las complejidades de un mundo con conflictos armados de larga duración, intereses no alineados entre los países ricos y los países pobres, barreras económicas y técnicas en el despliegue de energías alternas, entre otras variables, nos llevan a concluir que, por ahora, el reemplazo en gran escala de la energía fósil no avance con la rapidez que la IEA asume en sus análisis de corto plazo. El pronóstico de la OPEP, interesado sin duda, nos parece por ahora como más probable.

En resumen, los posibles efectos sobre la demanda de una potencial recesión, por un lado, y las limitaciones coyunturales y estructurales en el suministro, por el otro, se han decantado por mantener los precios del crudo en una banda.

La OPEP+ está determinando un precio piso, por su capacidad de cerrar y abrir producción. Por el otro lado, la economía China establece un precio techo con su menos que óptimo desempeño económico, reforzado por su capacidad de utilizar sus reservas estratégicas de crudo para evitar que los precios se desborden.

En este rango, la semana mostró un aumento significativo en los precios con respecto a la semana anterior. El crudo Brent rozando los  82 dólares/bbl, pero las noticias recibidas de China provocaron ventas masivas de contratos petroleros, de forma que al cierre del mercado los precios retrocedieron, tranzando al final de la sesión en 79,87dólares/bbl y 75,42 dólares/bbl para los crudos Brent y WTI respectivamente.

Finalmente, varias noticias importantes están en pleno desarrollo, pero su efecto sobre el balance petrolero todavía se desconoce. Entre las más relevantes:

• • • Rusia incrementó por encima de en 60 dólares/bbl el precio de su crudo Ural, una medida que luce desesperada para tratar de lograr ingresos adicionales. Sin embargo, India, su segundo mejor mercado, podría vetar la compra de petróleo a esos precios, por el temor a ser sancionados. Los bancos locales en India exigen pruebas de que el precio del envío de petróleo está por debajo de 60 dólares/bbl -recordemos que este es el techo que le impusieron las sanciones económicas.
    • La ola de calor en Europa está afectando la producción de las plantas nucleares de Bugey y Saint Alban, en Francia, debido a las regulaciones ambientales sobre el uso de agua de ríos para el enfriamiento de los reactores. La generación de energía nuclear en Francia constituye alrededor del 70% de la matriz eléctrica del país, lo que convierte a Francia en un exportador neto de electricidad a otros países europeos, cuando sus reactores están en pleno funcionamiento.
    • ExxonMobil (NYSE: XON) acordó comprar a Denbury Inc. (NYSE: DEN) por 4,9 $MMM en acciones. Esta adquisición busca acelerar la presencia de la trasnacional en el campo de la transición energética, con una operación ya establecida de Captura, Uso y Almacenamiento de carbono (CCUS: por sus siglas en inglés). La adquisición, que le da a Exxon, entre otras ventajas, acceso a capacidad de transporte de CO₂ lista para usar. Denbury también tiene un negocio de producción de petróleo y gas.
    • California, el séptimo mayor productor de petróleo crudo de EE.UU., ha suspendido, casi por completo, la emisión de permisos para perforar pozos nuevos este año, según datos estatales. La División de Gestión de Energía Geológica del estado, conocida como CalGEM, aprobó solo siete nuevos permisos 2023, en comparación con los más de 200 que había emitido para esta época el año pasado. Más de 1.400 solicitudes no han sido respondidas.
    • Shell (SHEL.L) ha realizado un cuarto descubrimiento de hidrocarburos en aguas ultra profundas en Namibia, una de las provincias exploratorias de mayor interés en alta mar. La empresa, asociada con la francesa TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) confirmó la presencia de hidrocarburos en el pozo Lesedi-1X en aguas ultra profundas de Namibia. Las indicaciones de los tipos de yacimientos descubiertos por Shell y Total sugieren una provincia petrolera de características similares a los descubrimientos en Guyana en el otro lado del Atlántico.

Transición energética, Tierras Raras

Hace pocos días, China anunció que restringirá la exportación de galio y germanio, dos minerales considerados críticos en la producción de semiconductores, celdas solares y otros sistemas asociados a la electrónica, de la que depende mucho de la vida moderna y la naciente transición energética.

De acuerdo con lo anunciado por el Ministerio de Comercio chino, estos minerales y más de tres docenas más de metales relacionados, y otros materiales, serán sujeto de controles de exportación desde el 1 de agosto de 2023. Según el gobierno chino, estas restricciones están enmarcadas en consideraciones de seguridad e intereses nacionales, mas pareciera ser una profundización de la guerra comercial que el gigante oriental lleva adelante con los EE.UU., quién ya había impuesto restricciones a sus exportaciones de óxido de galio en 2022 y otras restricciones asociadas a la fabricación de chips informáticos.

Esta no es la primera vez que China ha puesto restricciones en la exportación a materiales claves en la industria electrónica, en particular los llamados elementos de tierras raras (REE: por sus siglas en inglés), con el fin de mantener su disponibilidad para su industria manufacturera y además subrayar su control sobre la cadena de suministro global.

A principios de la década de 1990, China comienza a exportar REEs después de descubrir, en la década de 1980, grandes depósitos en el interior de Mongolia, y se convierte rápidamente en el mayor proveedor a nivel global. Ya en el 2005, China comienza a aplicar aranceles a la exportación de tierras raras para conservar los recursos y proteger el medioambiente; desde entonces el Gobierno ha venido instrumentando diferentes medidas para resguardar su posición dominante en el mercado de tierras raras. Según la Agencia Internacional de la Energía (IEA: por sus siglas en inglés) en el 2019 China produjo 87% de las tierras raras, y continúa siendo el peso pesado en el sector.

En febrero de 2021, el presidente de Estado Unidos, Joe Biden, firmó una orden ejecutiva destinada a revisar las deficiencias en las cadenas de suministro de tierras raras, dispositivos médicos, chips informáticos y otros recursos críticos del país. En marzo del mismo año, el Departamento de Energía de EE.UU. anunció una iniciativa para investigar y asegurar las cadenas de suministro nacionales de tierras raras y metales para baterías como el cobalto y el litio. En junio de 2022, Biden invocó la Ley de Productos de Defensa para aumentar la producción nacional de minerales críticos como las tierras raras, así como para financiar estudios de viabilidad y ampliar los recursos existentes.

¿Qué son Tierras Raras?²

Las tierras raras, también llamados elementos de tierras raras u óxidos de tierras raras, son  un grupo de 17 elementos metálicos, ubicados en el medio de la tabla periódica (números atómicos 21, 39 y 57-71), del grupo de los lantánidos. Estos metales tienen propiedades fluorescentes, conductoras y magnéticas inusuales, lo que los hace muy útiles cuando se alean o mezclan en pequeñas cantidades con metales más comunes y son materiales cruciales en la electrónica moderna.

Algunos de los nombres de estos minerales se derivan de los nombres de los científicos que los descubrieron o establecieron sus propiedades, mientras que otros fueron nombrados por el lugar donde fueron descubiertos:

Geológicamente hablando, los elementos de tierras raras no son ni tierras ni particularmente raros. Los depósitos de estos metales se encuentran en muchos lugares en todo el mundo, con algunos de ellos en la misma abundancia en la corteza terrestre que el cobre o el estaño. Pero, al contrario de esos últimos, las tierras raras nunca se encuentran en concentraciones muy altas y generalmente se consiguen mezcladas entre sí o con elementos radiactivos, como el uranio y el torio, lo que hace compleja su manipulación y separación. Además, el proceso de separación de tierras raras entre sí es tecnológicamente complejo y costoso.

El mercado de metales de tierras raras se estimó en 5.300 millones de dólares en 2021 y se prevé que alcance los 9.600 millones de dólares en 2026; con un crecimiento anual del 12,3% de 2021 a 2026.

La producción de tierras raras involucra varios procesos complejos:

• • • Se extraen de minas a cielo abierto o subterráneas, al igual que otros metales. Los principales países productores son China, Estados Unidos, Birmania y Australia.
    • El mineral se tritura y muele en polvo fino para liberar los elementos de tierras raras que contiene. Esto facilita su posterior separación.
    • Se usan técnicas como extracción con solventes o intercambio iónico para separar las tierras raras entre sí. Esto es complicado, ya que sus propiedades químicas son muy similares.
    • Una vez separados, se refinan mediante electrólisis o calcinación con ácidos, extrayendo los elementos individuales en forma de óxidos de alta pureza.
    • Los óxidos de tierras raras se pueden combinar con otros metales para producir aleaciones con propiedades deseadas, como imanes de neodimio-hierro-boro.
    • Las aleaciones y compuestos se manufacturan en productos finales como catalizadores, vidrio, cerámicas, imanes permanentes, baterías, entre otros.
    • También se reciclan productos que contienen tierras raras para reutilizar estos materiales.

Las propiedades magnéticas, fosforescentes y catalíticas, únicas de los REEs, los hacen insustituibles para muchas aplicaciones de alta tecnología. Por ejemplo, el neodimio se usa para fabricar imanes fuertes para motores y generadores en vehículos eléctricos, turbinas eólicas y otras aplicaciones de energía limpia. El europio se usa para fósforos rojos en televisores y monitores de computadora. El cerio se utiliza como catalizador en la refinación de petróleo.

Las tierras raras también son esenciales para las tecnologías de defensa, como los motores de aviones de combate, los sistemas de guía de misiles, los sistemas de comunicación y satélite, los sistemas de radar y sonar, y más. Por lo tanto, EE.UU., la UE, Japón y otros también consideran una prioridad de seguridad nacional asegurar cadenas de suministro confiables de tierras raras.

Es probable que los elementos de tierras raras sigan siendo una parte importante de nuestro futuro, desde la computación cuántica y las ciencias de los materiales hasta las aplicaciones médicas y los avances en tecnología ecológica. Los cambios en curso de los automóviles de combustión interna a los vehículos eléctricos también aumentarán la demanda de imanes y baterías de tierras raras.

En el contexto de transición energética, donde el sistema migra de seguridad de suministro de petróleo a seguridad de suministro de minerales, no solo de tierras raras, sino en mayor escala de cobre y el litio, entre otros, la geopolítica de las fuentes de suministro será también un factor importante para considerar, cuando de proyectar el despliegue de las nuevas tecnologías se trate.

Para satisfacer la demanda futura, las empresas mineras han propuesto abrir nuevas minas y construir nuevas plantas de procesamiento en muchas partes del mundo. En países que tendrán sus propios retos ambientales y sociales. Algunos planes suenan extravagantes, como la minería en aguas profundas o la extracción de tierras raras de las aguas residuales ácidas que se drenan de las minas abandonadas. Estas técnicas de producción podrían volverse económicamente viables si un gran aumento en la demanda hace subir los precios o si los gobiernos deciden subsidiar los costos de producción.

A diferencia de los precios del petróleo, el oro y la plata, los precios de los elementos de tierras raras son difíciles de conseguir, ya que no existe un intercambio público ampliamente utilizado para las tierras raras. Empresas como Argus Rare Earths publican evaluaciones de precios regulares basadas en encuestas de comerciantes, consumidores y otros participantes en el mercado.

Venezuela

Eventos Políticos y otros:El régimen, confrontado con un comportamiento inusualmente positivo de la oposición y el auge que ha alcanzado el interés de votar y aglutinarse alrededor de la candidatura de María Corina Machado, parece haber decidido eliminar cualquier vestigio de posibles elecciones justas y verificables, usando el Poder Legislativo y Judicial como instrumentos político-partidistas.

Ni las reuniones secretas en Catar entre los representantes de la administración Biden y representantes del régimen de Maduro, ni los esfuerzos de la Plataforma Unitaria Democrática (PUD) en Washington, han logrado destrabar las paralizadas negociaciones de México. Por el contrario, la administración de Biden está, aparentemente, endureciendo su tratamiento de las sanciones por la falta de colaboración del régimen. Esto al final redunda en la capacidad de recuperación la industria petrolera venezolana, que es lo que nos ocupa. Por el lado económico, la inflación continúa aumentando y la tasa de cambio rompió el techo de 30 bolívares/dólar.

Según fuentes cercanas al régimen, el Ministerio de Petróleo estaría por aumentar los precios del gas natural en el mercado doméstico, con el objeto de ir eliminando gradualmente los subsidios a los combustibles. El plan es el de triplicar los precios de este combustible a las empresas y fábricas que usan gas en sus hornos, calderas y calentadores; pagarán 3,3 dólares/MMBTU, un aumento importante versus el precio anterior de 1,13 dólar/MMBTU.

Sector Hidrocarburos

Producción: La producción semanal continúa afectada por el cierre de pozos producto de las explosiones en instalaciones en occidente y oriente. La producción semanal promedió 706 Mbpd distribuido geográficamente como sigue:

La producción de las empresas mixtas gestionadas por Chevron (NYSE: CVX) promediaron 123 Mbpd.

Refinación:El sistema nacional de refinerías procesó 225 Mbpd de crudo y productos intermedios. El Complejo Refinador Paraguaná (CRP), nuevamente tiene las dos unidades de craqueo catalítico (FCC) paradas, afectando la producción de gasolina; el reformador de Cardón también se encuentra en mantenimiento. La Refinería de Puerto la Cruz está en operación limitada por escasez de crudo liviano, y la Refinería El Palito está funcionando y produciendo unos 10 Mbpd de gasolina.

Exportaciones e importaciones:Como ya es costumbre, las exportaciones de principios de mes comienzan en niveles moderados y los despachos se espera se incrementen en la última quincena del mes. Las exportaciones de crudo apenas sobrepasan los 300 Mbpd, inclusive las manejadas por Chevron están rezagadas, pero con tanqueros atracados en los terminales o cerca de ellos. 

Durante el mes de junio se recibieron 2,1 MMbbls de condensado iraní, manteniendo así los inventarios de diluente a niveles normales. A finales del mes está programado recibir 500 Mbbls de nafta pesada traída por Chevron para diluir sus crudos de la Faja a segregaciones Merey y DCO. Por cierto, en los documentos de la aduana de EE.UU. se observa que un cargamento de crudo venezolano, exportado por Chevron fue vendido a ExxonMobil, siendo este la primera compra de crudo venezolano de esa empresa desde el impasse con la administración de Chávez.

—
(1)La agenda política de la OPEP+ es, por definición, extender en el tiempo la vida económica de los recursos que sus países miembros, extrayendo el mayor valor económico posible.
(2)Esta sección fue desarrollada con la ayuda de https://claude.ai/chats y contrastada con otras fuentes.
—
*La ilustración generada utilizando DALL-E, realizada por Luis A. Pacheco, es cortesía del autor al editor de La Gran Aldea.
—
*M. Juan Szabo, Analista Internacional.
*Luis A. Pacheco, non-resident fellow at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies.

Between One Thing and the Other - Publicado en Zignox, July 18, 2023

EL TALADRO AZUL - ZIGNOX

JUAN M. SZABO, LUIS A. PACHECO

In a world enduring long-lasting armed conflicts, as well as economic and technical barriers to deploy alternative energies, the replacement of fossil energy will not advance at the speed the IEA assumes in its most recent projection.

Several factors on the supply side have come together in recent days to give oil prices an upward push. Production interruptions in Libya, Nigeria, and Mexico, coupled with reinforced production cut commitments from Saudi Arabia and Russia, boosted prices to their highest levels in three months. In addition, the slowdown in US inflation seems to give, at least temporarily, an upper hand to the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy.

 

The oil supply has narrowed by more than 2.0 MMbpd, due to the apparent compliance with the production quota cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which combined represent 1.5 MMbpd.

 

Additionally, in Libya, some 350 Mbpd of crude from some of the most productive fields, including El-Sharara, were shut for some days down last week. The rivalry between the factions, aggravated by protests by local tribes over the kidnapping of a former minister, disrupted the production, which later on was re-established.

 

In Nigeria, an alleged leak in the pipeline that connects to the loading buoy seems to have restricted the loading of tankers from the Forcados terminal, affecting some 300 Mbpd until the problem is solved.

 

On the other side of the world, the accident at Pemex’s operation in the Campeche Bank, caused a shutdown of some 700 Mbpd (almost half of Mexico's production). Output recovered somehow, but the last 150 MBPD, directly related to the gas compression that was destroyed by the fire on the Nohoch Alfa platform, will require more time and effort to be reactivated.

 

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues without contributing significant volumes to the composition of the supply. This week, the Baker Hughes report on drilling rigs showed a reduction of 5 net rigs; in the Permian Basin, the most attractive to reverse the stagnation, showed a reduction of 8 units. On the other side of the coin, , according to data from the same report, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are incorporating drilling rigs.

 

On the demand side, mixed signals emerged, but the most relevant are the signs of economic lethargy coming from China; the main question being the government's ability to stimulate the economy. In any case, the month of July presents crude oil imports markedly lower than the high levels achieved in June. Part of the high import volumes went to swell the strategic reserves, which, unlike those of the US, are practically full.

 

Divergent views

 

Two of the most influential international organizations in the world of energy,  OPEC and the International Energy Agency, IEA, regularly publish their views on the oil industry. Their analyses rarely coincide: sometimes it seems that they are analyzing different commodities.

 

OPEC, for example, raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2023 and predicted only a slight slowdown in 2024. According to the analysis, despite economic headwinds, China and India continue to boost demand. In its monthly report, OPEC indicates that global oil demand will rise by 225 MMBPD in 2024, an increase of 2.2%, compared to a growth of 2.44 MMBPD in 2023. The analysis considers that the demographics, economic growth, and modest competition from viable energy alternatives will sustain the growing demand[1].

 

On the other hand, the IEA argues that oil demand is under pressure from the economic backdrop and its reaction to the drastic tightening of monetary policy in many advanced countries. Still, it forecasts global oil demand to increase seasonally by 1.6 MMbpd from Q2 to Q3 of this year, averaging 102.1 MMbpd for the full year, a record. Growth will slow to 1.1 MBPD in 2024, as the recovery loses momentum and increasing measures of electrification and vehicle fleet efficiency take hold.

 

These forecasts, while marginally different from OPEC's on energy and climate change, do point to declining demand, reflecting the IEA's political mandate to drive the energy transition as fast as possible.

 

A world with long-lasting armed conflicts, non-aligned interests between rich and poor countries, and economic and technical barriers in the deployment of alternative energy, among other variables, lead us to conclude that, for now, the replacement of fossil energy will not advance with the speed that the IEA assumes in its short-term analysis. OPEC's forecast, undoubtedly interesting, seems more likely for now.

 

In short, a potential economic recession, and the structural and accidental limitations in the supply of crude, position oil prices within a virtual band.

 

OPEC+ is determining a floor price, due to its ability to close and open production. The Saudis as swing producers.  On the other hand, the Chinese economy sets a price ceiling with its less-than-optimal economic performance, bolstered by its ability to use its strategic crude oil reserves to prevent prices from spiraling out of control.

 

In this range, the week showed a significant increase in prices from the previous week. Brent Crude was close to $82/bbl, but the news received from China caused massive sales of oil contracts. So, at the close of the market, prices fell back, trading at $79.87/bbl and $75.42 /bbl for Brent and WTI crudes respectively.

 

Finally, several important news is still developing, but their effect on the oil balance is unknown. Among the most relevant:

 

Russia increased the price of its Ural crude by more than $60/bbl, a move that was born out of the need for additional revenue. India, its second-best market, could veto the purchase of oil at those prices, for fear of being sanctioned. Local banks in India require proof that the price of shipping oil is below $60/bbl—please note that this is the ceiling imposed by the economic sanctions.

The heat wave in Europe is affecting the production of the Bugey and Saint Alban nuclear plants in France, due to environmental regulations on the use of river water for reactor cooling. Nuclear power generation in France constitutes about 70% of the country's electricity matrix, making France a net exporter of electricity to other European countries when its reactors are fully operational.

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) has agreed to buy Denbury Inc. (NYSE: DEN) for $4.9B in stock. This acquisition seeks to accelerate the presence of the transnational in the field of energy transition, with an already established operation of Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage (CCUS: for its acronym in English). The acquisition, gives Exxon among other advantages, access to existing CO₂ transport capacity. Denbury also has an oil and gas production business.

California, the seventh-largest producer of crude oil in the US, has almost completely suspended the issuance of permits to drill new wells this year, according to state data. The state's Division of Geologic Energy Management, known as CalGEM, approved just seven new permits for 2023, compared to the more than 200 it had issued by this time last year. More than 1,400 requests have not been answered.

Shell (NYSE: SHEL) announced its fourth ultra-deep-water hydrocarbon discovery in Namibia, one of the most interesting offshore exploration provinces. The company, associated with France's TotalEnergies (NYSE: TOT) confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons in the Lesedi-1X well in ultra-deep waters off Namibia. Indications of the reservoir types discovered by Shell and Total suggest an oil province with characteristics similar to the discoveries in Guyana on the other side of the Atlantic.

Rare Earths

 

A few days ago, China announced that it will restrict the export of gallium and germanium, two minerals considered critical in the production of semiconductors, solar cells, and other systems associated with advanced electronics; on which much of modern life and the emerging energy transition depend.

 

According to what was announced by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, these minerals and more than three dozen related metals and other materials will be subject to export controls from August 1, 2023. According to the Chinese government, the restrictions are motivated by security considerations and national interests, but it seems to be a deepening of the trade war that the eastern giant is carrying out with the US. The Americans had previously imposed restrictions on its gallium oxide exports in 2022 and other technologies associated with the manufacturing of computer chips.

 

This is not the first time that China has placed export restrictions on key materials in the electronics industry, in particular the so-called rare earth elements (REE), to secure their availability for its manufacturing and computer industries; and also, to underline its control over the global supply chain.

 

In the early 1990s, China began exporting REE after discovering large deposits in Inner Mongolia in the 1980s, and quickly became the largest global supplier. In 2005, China began to apply tariffs to the export of rare earths to conserve resources and protect the environment. Since then, the government has been implementing different measures to safeguard its dominant position in the rare earth market. According to the IEA, in 2019, China produced 87% of the rare earths and continues to be the heavyweight in the sector.

 

In February 2021, US President Joe Biden signed an executive order aimed at reviewing deficiencies in the country's supply chains for rare earths, medical devices, computer chips, and other critical resources. In March of the same year, the US Department of Energy announced an initiative to investigate and secure the national supply chains of rare earths and battery metals such as cobalt and lithium. In June 2022, Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to increase domestic production of critical minerals like rare earths, as well as fund feasibility studies and expand existing resources.

 

What are Rare Earths? [2]

 

Rare earths, also called rare earth elements or rare earth oxides, are a group of 17 metallic elements, located in the middle of the periodic table (atomic numbers 21, 39, and 57–71), in the lanthanide group . These metals have unusual fluorescent, conductive, and magnetic properties, making them very useful when alloyed or mixed in small amounts with more common metals, and are crucial materials in modern electronics.

 

Some names of these minerals are derived from the names of the scientists who discovered them or established their properties, while others were named after the place where they were discovered:

 

 

Scandium (Sc)

Yttrium (Y)

Lanthanum (La)

Cerium (Ce)

Praseodymium (Pr)

Neodymium (Nd)

Promised (Pm)

Samarium (Sm)

Europium (Eu)

Gadolinium (Gd)

Terbium (Tb)

Dysprosium (Dy)

Holmium (Ho)

Erbium (Er)

Thulium (Tm)

Ytterbium (Yb)

Lutetium (Lu)

 

Geologically speaking, the rare earth elements are not particularly rare. Deposits of these metals are found in many places around the world, with some of them in the same abundance in the earth's crust as copper or tin. But, contrary to the latter, rare earths are never found in very high concentrations and are generally found mixed with each other or with radioactive elements, such as uranium and thorium, which makes their handling and separation complex and expensive.

 

The global rare earth metals market generated USD7 billion in revenue in 2021, and it is expected to reach USD15 billion by 2030, progressing with a CAGR of 9.1% during 2021–2030.

 

The production of rare earths involves several complex processes:

 

They are extracted from open pit or underground mines, just like other metals. The main producing countries are China, the United States, Burma and Australia.

The ore is crushed and ground into a fine powder to release the rare earth elements it contains, facilitating their subsequent separation.

Techniques such as solvent extraction or ion exchange are used to separate the rare earths from each other. This is tricky since their chemical properties are very similar.

Once separated, they are refined by electrolysis or calcination with acids, extracting the individual elements in the form of oxides of high purity.

Rare earth oxides can be combined with other metals to produce alloys with desired properties, such as neodymium-iron-boron magnets. Alloys and compounds are manufactured into final products such as catalysts, glass, ceramics, permanent magnets, batteries, among others.

Products containing rare earths are also recycled to reuse these materials.

The unique magnetic, phosphorescent, and catalytic properties of REE make them irreplaceable for many high-tech applications. For example, neodymium is used to make strong magnets for motors and generators in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other clean energy applications. Europium is used for red phosphors in televisions and computer monitors. Cerium is used as a catalyst in oil refining.

 

Rare earths are also essential for defense technologies such as fighter jet engines, missile guidance systems, satellite and communication systems, radar and sonar systems, and more. Therefore, the US, EU, Japan and others also consider it a national security priority to ensure reliable supply chains of rare earths.

 

Rare earth elements are likely to continue to be an important part of our future, from quantum computing and materials science to medical applications and advances in green technology. The ongoing shifts from internal combustion cars to electric vehicles will also increase demand for rare earth magnets and batteries.

 

In the context of the energy transition, where the system migrates from the security of oil supply to the security of mineral supply, not only for rare earths but on a larger scale for copper and lithium, among others, the geopolitics of supply will be a significant factor when planning the deployment of new technologies.

 

To meet future demand, mining companies have proposed opening new mines and building new processing plants in many parts of the world. In countries that will have their own environmental and social challenges. Some plans sound outlandish, like deep-sea mining or extracting rare earths from acidic wastewater that drains from abandoned mines. These production techniques could become economically viable if a large increase in demand drives up prices or if governments decide to subsidize production costs.

 

Unlike oil, gold, and silver prices, rare earth element prices are hard to come by as there is no widely used public exchange for rare earths. Companies like Argus Rare Earths publish regular price assessments based on surveys of dealers, consumers, and other market participants.

 

Venezuela: Political Events and More

 

The regime, confronted with an unusually coherent behavior of the political opposition, and the growing interest around the candidacy of María Corina Machado, seems to have decided to eliminate any vestige of possible fair and verifiable elections, using the legislative power and judicial as political-partisan instruments.

 

Neither the secret meetings in Qatar between representatives of the Biden administration and representatives of the Maduro regime, nor the efforts of the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) in Washington, have succeeded in unlocking the paralyzed negotiations in Mexico. By contrast, the Biden administration is apparently tightening its treatment of sanctions as a response to the regime's non-collaboration. This ultimately will impact in the recovery capacity of the Venezuelan oil industry, which is what concerns us in these reports.

 

On the economic side, inflation continues to rise, and the exchange rate broke the ceiling of Bs 30/$.

 

According to sources close to the regime, the Ministry of Petroleum is about to increase the prices of natural gas in the domestic market, to gradually eliminate fuel subsidies. The plan is to triple the prices of this fuel to the companies and factories that use natural gas in their ovens, boilers, and heaters; they will pay $3.3/MMBTU, a significant increase from today’s price of $1.13/MMBTU.

 

Hydrocarbons Sector.

 

Production: Weekly production continues to be affected by the closure of wells as a result of the explosions at facilities in the west and east. Weekly production averaged 706 Mbpd geographically distributed as follows:

 

West:                           101 (Boscán 50)

East:                            152

Belt:                             4 53 (Chevron 73)

Total:                           706 (Chevron 123)

Production from joint ventures managed by Chevron (NYSE: CVX) averaged 123 Mbpd

 

Refining: The national system of refineries processed 225 Mbpd of crude oil and intermediate products. The Paraguaná refining complex (CRP) once again has the two catalytic cracking units (FCC) stopped, impacting gasoline production; the Cardón reformer is also undergoing maintenance. The Puerto la Cruz refinery is in limited operation due to a shortage of light crude oil, and the El Palito refinery is operating and producing about 10 MBPD of gasoline.

 

Exports and Imports: As is customary, exports at the beginning of the month start at moderate levels, and shipments are expected to increase in the last fortnight of the month. Crude exports barely exceed 300 Mbpd, including those handled by Chevron are lagging, but with tankers docked at or near the terminals. 

During the month of June, 2.1 MMbbls of Iranian condensate were received, thus maintaining diluent inventories at normal levels. At the end of the month, it is scheduled to receive 500 Mbbls of heavy naphtha imported by Chevron to dilute its crudes from the Orinoco belt to Merey and DCO segregations. By the way, US customs documents show that a shipment of Venezuelan crude exported by Chevron was sold to ExxonMobil, this being the first purchase of Venezuelan crude from that company since the impasse with the Chávez administration.

 

 

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[1] OPEC+'s political agenda is, by definition, to extend the economic life of the resources of its member countries over time, extracting the greatest possible economic value.

 

[2]This section was developed with the help of https://claude.ai/chats and checked against other sources.

Note: A version of this article was published in Spanish by La Gran Aldea on July 18, 2023.

 

A Ceiling Made of Politics

 EL TALADRO AZUL

Published in Zignox. July 11, 2023

The oil market seems to have found a reason for its optimism, but the upside potential remains evasive amid the prospect of interest rate hikes, which are still seminal to the Fed and the European Central Bank policies. A meager economic recovery in China can also curb any initial enthusiasm. 

JUAN M. SZABO, LUIS A. PACHECO

In a market as shaky as today’s oil market, the release of economic and industry-driven statistics provides information that gravitates over the expectations of those moving the barrels, both physically and on paper.

Last Friday, the US Department of Labor published its labor report offering two messages. Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6%, and the number of unemployed, at 6.0 million, were little changed in June. Important to highlight that since March 2022 the unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy has fluctuated between 3.4% and 3.7%.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 209,000, while employment in government, health care, welfare, and construction continued its upward trend. Non-farm employment has grown by an average of 278,000 per month during the first six months of the year, well below the monthly average of 399,000 in 2022.

Under ordinary conditions, the slowdown in job creation would have adversely affected oil prices, but under current conditions, the market seems to have chosen to interpret the downtrend as an element that could dissuade the Federal Reserve (Fed), albeit temporarily,  from its monetary tightening campaign.

However, in our view, this slowdown alone, as interpreted by capital markets, is not enough to prevent further Fed rate hikes. In June, median hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 0.4% to USD33.58. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4%. This increase surely causes concern among the FOMC’s members.

An element that helps prop prices up is the reduction in inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates in the US. And reports from the API (American Petroleum Institute) and the EIA (Energy Information Administration) showed a drop of about 5.0 MMbbls, despite a rebound in imports.

The decrease in inventories is directly related to the growth in demand for gasoline, typical of the summer season, and the increase in the nation’s exports. A third element is also relevant: the increase, in the US and the rest of the world, of air transportation activity, which has exceeded pre-Covid levels. In fact, the higher rate of air activity has caused a bottleneck in the air traffic controllers and pilots available to absorb the increase in flights.

OPEC+ and Geopolitics

No less important has been the verification that Saudi Arabia is honoring its commitment to cut production by 1.0 MMbpd, extending it to July and August. In the same order of ideas, Russia announced that it would reduce its oil output by 0.5 MMbpd, fulfilling its commitment to OPEC+, and contributing to putting some order in the market. The reality is that far from being a measure of collaboration or “altruism”, it is the result of having consumed its floating inventories and cornered the reduction opportunities in its domestic market, leaving its exports at the mercy of its limited crude production: from about 9.3 MMbpd.

Geopolitics also brought renewed tension to relations in the Gulf of Oman, when Iranian coast guard ships tried to capture, on separate occasions, two tankers in international waters: TRF Moss and Richmond Voyager. In the case of the Richmond Voyager, the Iranian Navy resorted to firing when it failed to heed calls to stop. In both instances, the US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul showed up to defend the tankers, and the Iranians withdrew. Chevron (NYSE: CVX), the Richmond Voyager's charterer, confirmed that although the tanker was hit by small caliber ammunition, there were no casualties, and it was continuing to sail.

Drill activity, published by Baker Hughes, shows an increase of 8 units in the US, although still 72 rigs below the figure 12 months ago.

At first glance, all of this could be interpreted as a change in the prospects for oil companies. But a more detailed analysis indicates that the reduction in drilling activity in the Shale Oil basins continues and that the growth corresponds to natural gas activities. An uptick in the swamps of southern Louisiana; Globally, activity looks healthy (+143 drills for May 2023 versus 12 months ago, but its effect on supply has not yet been detected.

In short, all voluntary or unexpected events, such as the Pemex accident described below, confirm that of contracting supply versus demand.

Thus, crude oil prices, at market close, were at their highest values in the past two months. The reference crudes Brent and WTI were trading at USD78.5/bbl and USD73.9/bbl, respectively. For the week, WTI rose 4.6%, building on the 2.1% rise from the previous week. Brent rose 4.8% on the week, following a 1.4% gain the week before.

Although the market seems to have found a foothold for its optimism, the upside potential remains limited by the prospect of interest rate hikes, which remains part of the agenda of both the Fed and the European Central Bank, ECB, and the weak recovery of the Chinese economy. These factors appear to set an imaginary ceiling that limits prices, even though strong supply and demand fundamentals support a bullish view.

A matter of investment

Recently, a discussion has arisen about the investment levels that the hydrocarbon industry must maintain to develop its productive assets. The absolute numbers show a significant decline since the post-2014 price war, a trend that was accentuated by the effects of the pandemic on the global economy.

According to Rystad Energy, the industry’s annual investments have fallen from a peak of USD900 billion, reached in 2014, to an estimated USD580 billion for this year, and the market expects this trend to continue, leading to a chronic lack of investment and a shortage of oil supply in the years to come.
But this widespread belief is contrary to the predictions modeled by Rystad. According to this consulting firm, "lower unit prices, efficiency gains, productivity gains, and evolving portfolio strategies have significantly increased the efficiency of the upstream industry, in other words, the industry can do the same," than before, but at a much lower cost.”

Although there is no doubt that the industry's operating efficiencies have improved substantially, Rystad appears to be failing to account for two factors that have the opposite effect. On the one hand, exploration and production activities are carried out in increasingly complex areas and in basins whose productivity is declining due to the weight of time. For example,  increasing depths of water; and the increasing presence of interspaced wells (“ child wells ”) in unconventional basins. The other factor that has to be considered is inflation, which currently weighs on investments and operations alike.

On this same subject, Goldman Sachs recently published an interesting report on the industry. The New York-based investment bank expects “oil and gas activity to grow +9% per year (+13 and 24% for deepwater and LNG respectively) by 2025, a 2.4x increase in investment decisions since the minimum. The industry currently has 70 giant projects in development, 25% more than in 2020, but still 35% below the 2014 level.” On the other hand, “7 years of insufficient investment has reduced the useful life of the oil reserves of the main projects, to almost half the value shown since 2014.”

Finally, several important news are in full swing, but their effect on the oil balance is still unknown:
• The leader of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar, has threatened to use force unless the country's political leaders agree on a fair way to distribute oil revenues, which must be agreed upon by August. Libya, despite the armed conflict between East and West, with hidden international intervention, has managed to increase its oil production to 1.2 MMbpd, which is now being threatened.
• Peme’x Nohoch Alfa platform, in the Gulf of Campeche, about 100 km north of Ciudad del Carmen, was severely damaged by fire. The tragic toll: 321 people have been evacuated, 2 died and 4 are missing. The platform handles gas compression for the company's most important oil complex. The magnitude of the event indicates that, despite President López Obrador's announcement, ruling out collateral effects, crude oil, and gas production will suffer a material reduction. The closure of the facility could affect more than 300 Mbpd until production begins to reopen.
• Egypt has started a USD1.8 billion investment program to drill natural gas exploration wells in the Mediterranean Sea and the Nile Delta. According to Oil Minister Tarek El Molla, the program is being carried out with ENI, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP, and consists of drilling 35 wells in two years, 21 in the current fiscal year 2023/2024 and 14 in the next year.
• OPEC has held consultations with four countries – Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Brunei, and Mexico—in a bid to expand the group's membership, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said. Difficult to understand the incentives for countries like Mexico to actually agree to join.
• The ExxonMobil-led consortium has received approval from Guyana's environmental regulator to drill, through 2028, 35 new exploration and appraisal wells on the offshore Stabroek block.

Energy transition, the sun shines for everyone

It is not possible to discuss the energy transition without including solar energy. Solar power is a form of renewable energy that uses sunlight to generate electricity or heat. Solar energy has a long history of development and innovation, dating back to ancient times.

Since the human species began to search for explanations of the world in which it lived, the sun and the moon have occupied a central place in its concerns. The veneration of the Sun throughout history is well attested, and many ancient cultures developed the solar cult; the ancient Egyptians did, as did Indo-European cultures and Mesoamerican cultures.

Understanding the comings and goings of the sun and the moon was of vital importance for agricultural societies, which developed their social structure around this knowledge: when to get up, when to lie down, when to sow, when to harvest, when to prepare for the heat, when to protect themselves from the cold.

The Babylonians and the Aztecs, just to mention two of the best-known ancient cultures, developed what we could now call scientific knowledge, to manage their society according to the signals they interpreted from the celestial bodies.

One of the fathers of modern science, the Florentine Galileo Galilei (1564 -1642), was persecuted by the Catholic Church for having defended the heliocentrism thesis of Nicolaus Copernicus. Copernicus' model postulated that the sun was the center of the universe, and the planets revolved around it. The church, based on biblical texts, held that the center of the universe was the Earth – geocentrism . The sun, no longer as a God to be adored, but as a natural phenomenon to be explained.

In 1839, the French physicist Alexandre Edmond Becquerel discovered, while conducting experiments with electrolytic cells, the “photovoltaic effect” [1], observing that certain materials produced an electric current when exposed to light. Becquerel's work provided the initial understanding of the conversion of light to electricity and marked the first recognition of the photovoltaic effect.

In 1876, William Grylls Adams and Richard Evans Day, English physicists, further explored the photovoltaic effect by studying the behavior of selenium exposed to light. They observed that selenium produced an electrical current when illuminated.

Building on that work, Charles Fritts developed the first functional solar cell in 1883. The American inventor built a device consisting of a thin layer of selenium coated with a thin layer of gold, forming a junction that produced electricity when exposed to light. Although inefficient by today's standards, Fritts ' invention laid the foundation for future advances in solar cell technology.

The Swiss-German physicist, Albert Einstein, published in 1905 an article on the photoelectric effect. The photoelectric effect describes the release of electrons by certain materials when exposed to light, which is also related to the conversion of light into electricity. Interestingly, this was the article cited when he was awarded the 1921 Nobel Prize in Physics, and not his article on his famed special theory of relativity, which he also published in 1905 – his Annus Mirabilis .

In 1954, researchers at Bell Laboratories in the US, including Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller, and Gerald Pearson, developed the first practical and efficient silicon-based solar cell. Its silicon solar cell achieved a conversion efficiency [2] of around 6%, marking a significant improvement over previous designs.

After this breakthrough, solar cell technology has advanced rapidly. The development of more efficient materials, improvements in manufacturing techniques, and increased research efforts have contributed to the continued progress of solar cell technology. Throughout the second half of the 20th century and into the 21st century, the conversion efficiency of solar cells has increased, while costs have decreased significantly.

Advantages

• The Sun is an inexhaustible source of energy, providing a virtually unlimited power supply.
• Solar power production does not emit greenhouse gases or other harmful pollutants, reducing carbon footprints and mitigating climate change.
• Once installed, solar panels require minimal maintenance and have no fuel costs, leading to significant savings in the long run.
• Solar energy can be used for a variety of purposes, including generating electricity, heating water, and powering vehicles.
• Job Creation: The solar industry has the potential to create numerous employment opportunities, fueling economic growth and supporting local communities.

Disadvantages

• The initial investment required to install solar panels can be expensive, discouraging some individuals and businesses from adopting the technology.
• Intermittent nature: Solar power production is dependent on the availability of sunlight, making it intermittent and inconsistent, requiring energy storage solutions or grid integration.
• Land and space requirements: Large-scale solar power plants require considerable areas of land, which may conflict with other land uses or face opposition from local communities.
• Manufacturing and Disposal Issues: Solar panel production involves the use of rare earth elements and potentially toxic chemicals. Appropriate recycling methods must be implemented to prevent damage to the environment.

Solar energy has experienced remarkable growth recently. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), solar generation increased by a record 179 TWh (22% more) in 2021, to exceed 1,000 TWh; It accounted for 3.6% of global electricity generation and remains the third-largest renewable electricity technology after hydropower and wind power. In the IEA forecast, cumulative solar PV capacity nearly triples for the period 2010-2027, with growth of almost 1,500 GW over the period, surpassing natural gas in 2026 and coal in 2027. [1]

In the big economies, China is the largest producer and installer of solar panels in the world, which could present geopolitical problems ahead. India has seen significant growth in solar power installations, driven by government initiatives and a focus on expanding renewable energy sources to meet growing demand for electricity.

The United States is one of the leading countries in the deployment of solar energy. Several states, such as California and Texas, have implemented policies and incentives to promote the adoption of solar energy. In Europe, Germany has been a pioneer in solar energy, with a strong commitment to renewable energy as part of its policy.

Going forward, this technology will continue to grow its penetration. However, this growth will go hand in hand with restrictions on access to land, materials and the development of effective storage and transmission options.

Venezuela, political events, and others matters

Although the contacts, between the regime and the opposition, continue informally around electoral conditions for 2024 in exchange for modification of economic sanctions, no agreement is expected to unlock the political situation.

Given the apparent advance of the opposition candidacies, in particular the advance of Mrs. María Corina Machado in the polls, the regime seems to have opted to "Orteguizar"[2] the electoral process, that is, to eliminate the participants with a chance in a contest justice using rigged judicial procedures and intimidation by the security forces.

On the other hand, inflation continues its upward course, affected by lower amounts of foreign currency processed by Chevron through the national banking system; in the parallel market, 29.6 Bolivares were traded per dollar.

Hydrocarbons Sector.

At the end of June, the PDVSA Western Production team and the oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, visited the Lama Plant, located on Lake Maracaibo, to witness the start-up of the Lama 3 Module, equipment that allows the incorporation of 5 Mbpd of incremental crude oil production.

On the afternoon of July 6, a fire broke out in the facilities of the same Lama complex (Lama Generation), specifically in the electricity generation platform, in which a turbine exploded catastrophically, with two deaths and one injury to regret. The fire was controlled, but the plant will be out of service for a long time. This incident occurred just a few days after the explosion at the Tejero Operations Center (COT), in Punta de Mata, in the eastern part of the country, both affecting the country's fragile oil production. 

Production: The weekly production of crude oil was affected by the events described above. Production averaged 689 Mbpd geographically distributed was as follows:

• West:               97 (Boscán 50)
• East:                146
• Belt:                 446 (Chevron 71)
• Total:               689 (Chevron 121)

The production of the JVs managed by Chevron averaged 121 Mbpd, the result of the incorporation of a couple of additional wells in the Boscán Field.

Refining: 220 Mbpd of crude oil and intermediate products were processed in the national refineries. The Puerto la Cruz refinery is operating at operational minimums due to the lack of light crude oil. The El Palito refinery continues with the stabilization work on its processes. Although they claim to have produced some gasoline and diesel, this has not been independently confirmed.

The Paraguaná refining complex increased its production of diesel, and maintained its levels of supply to the national market of a “gasoline” produced by mixing naphtha and reformate. By the way, PDVSA increased the price of diesel for companies to $0.32/liter, this fuel had been delivered free of charge. The change is due to an attempt to cut the fuel subsidy, although it will continue to be “donated” to health institutions and other entities benefiting from preferential treatment.

Whenever these differential treatments and subsidies are presented, the temptation of smuggling and corruption arises. It is estimated that, currently, some 20 Mbpd of fuels have this destination.

Exports: Exports for the month of June closed with a total of 540 Mbpd, and 26 Mbpd in floating inventory. On the product side, some 60 Mbpd were exported.

Crude exports were : 136 Mbpd to the US, via Chevron; 24 Mbpd to Cuba; 30 Mbpd to Spain, in the barter with ENI/Repsol; and 350 Mbpd to China (130 Mbpd through Iranian barter and 220 Mbpd via intermediaries). On the product side, Cuba and China received 30 Mbpd each.

Of the total 136 Mbpd exported by Chevron, 50 Mbpd were Boscán crude, 52 Mbpd Hamaca upgraded crude, 17 Mbpd Merey and 17 Mbpd DCO. These last two segregations, Merey and DCO, are mixed with light and diluent crude brought by Chevron from Mexico.

Of the total crude and products, 626 Mbpd, that were shipped from Venezuelan terminals, only 382 Mbpd are considered commercial sales generating foreign exchange earnings.

Using the estimated prices for the month of June, these volumes represent foreign exchange inflows of the order of $400 million. Using Gulf of Mexico prices, we estimate that PDVSA's debt with Chevron was reduced by close to $100 million during the month.
 

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[1]This summary of the history of the solar cell is based on the book: “ Numbers Don't Lie”, Vaclav Smile . 2020

[2]The conversion efficiency of a photovoltaic (PV) cell, or solar cell, is the percentage of solar energy received by a PV device that is converted into usable electricity.

[3]https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022/executive-summary

[4]In reference to the actions carried out by Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua against his political adversaries 

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Note: A version of this article was published in Spanish by La Gran Aldea on July 11, 2023.